Pakistan will host the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in October 2024, marking an important diplomatic event in the region. As the rotating chair of the SCO, Pakistan has extended invitations to all member countries, including India. Notably, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited, which could open avenues for regional dialogue between the two countries amidst ongoing tensions. The summit will bring together heads of state from the eight member nations of the SCO—China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—to discuss regional security, economic cooperation, and various international issues. This meeting represents a key moment for Pakistan’s international diplomacy, especially given the historical significance of the event.

The SCO is a political, economic, and security alliance primarily focused on Central Asia, founded in 2001. Initially, its members included China, Russia, and four Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Over time, the SCO expanded, with Pakistan and India gaining full membership in 2017. The history of Pakistan and India with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is significant because both countries joined the organization together as full members, which reflects their broader geopolitical and strategic alignments in the region. The SCO evolved from the Shanghai Five mechanism, created in 1996 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, to settle border disputes and enhance regional security. Over time, it expanded its focus to include combating terrorism, extremism, and separatism, along with fostering economic cooperation and political collaboration.

India’s membership was part of its larger foreign policy to engage with Eurasian countries, especially in light of China’s growing influence in the region. By joining the SCO, India aimed to maintain a balance in its relations with both Russia and China while pursuing its interests in Central Asia. India’s concerns about terrorism, extremism, and regional security, particularly in Afghanistan and the broader South Asian region, made the SCO an attractive forum for cooperation. India sees the SCO as a platform for engaging with Central Asia on energy and trade, particularly for access to oil, gas, and other natural resources. On the other hand, Pakistan’s motivations were primarily rooted in deepening its ties with China, one of its closest allies, and engaging more broadly with Eurasian countries. Pakistan also viewed the SCO as a means to balance India’s influence in the region. Like India, Pakistan also viewed the SCO as an opportunity for expanding trade and investment links with Central Asia, particularly in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Although India and Pakistan joined the SCO as full members, their longstanding bilateral tensions have remained. However, the SCO emphasizes consensus and regional cooperation, which encourages both countries to engage in dialogue, even if indirectly. While the SCO generally avoids intervening in bilateral disputes, India and Pakistan’s tensions over Kashmir sometimes spill over into multilateral forums. However, the SCO encourages a focus on broader regional issues rather than bilateral conflicts. Despite their membership, India and Pakistan often have competing interests, especially regarding Afghanistan’s future and their respective roles in Central Asia. While India and Pakistan’s rivalry remains a factor, the SCO provides a platform for both countries to engage in multilateral dialogue on common concerns like terrorism, regional security, and economic cooperation.

SCO Summit 2024 brings new hopes for normalcy in India Pakistan relations as it paves way for Indian PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Islamabad. Regardless of the response to Pakistan’s inviatation, The SCO summit will make clear New Delhi’s intentions with regards to Pakistan. The BJP has maintained a hardline against Pakistan since it came to power in 2014. They have utilized their populist hidutva narratives to win the support of masses in successive elections. Despite all this, there have been times during Modi’s regime when India and Pakistan had seemed to come closer. PM Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore on his then counterpart Mian Nawaz Sharif’s birthday in 2015 was one such occasion that showed India’s will to have a working relation with Pakistan.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has historically maintained a cautious and pragmatic approach towards India, with a focus on dialogue, economic cooperation, and resolution of key disputes, notably Kashmir. Nawaz Sharif, during his tenure, sought to engage India in peace talks, most notably during his interactions with Indian Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Narendra Modi. Nawaz Sharif has historically supported confidence-building measures (CBMs) with India, such as the Lahore Declaration (1999), aimed at reducing nuclear tensions and encouraging bilateral cooperation. Nawaz’s brother, Mian Shehbaz Sharif, the PM of Pakistan would want PM Narendra Modi to visit Islamabad for the SCO meeting. New Delhi too may be more comfortable with the fact that party in power in Pakistan has historically hosted BJP premiers. In such a scenario, Modi’s Pakistan visit seems to very much possible and may lead to new CBMs.