Escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict provides both challenges and opportunities for Pakistan-Iran relations, with tight balancing presenting the only way forward. Israel attacked Iran, which was followed by the bombing of Iranian nuclear sites by the US to annihilate the Iranian nuclear program. Pakistan was quick to condemn these actions and show its support for Iran in accordance with international norms. This course of events presents Pakistan with an opportunity to strengthen relations with Iran in the areas of trade, security and intelligence sharing. The current situation also presents a challenge for Pakistan to balance these opportunities with its friendly and cordial relations with the US.

Stability in one state has a direct impact on the stability of neighbouring states and the entire region. This analogy is particularly relevant for Iran and Pakistan, which share a long border of approximately 909 kilometres, extending through Pakistan’s Balochistan and Iran’s Sistan and Balochistan region. During the Iran-Israel escalation, one of the stated goals of Israel was to topple the current Iranian government and install a new one in its place. The Israeli propaganda machine even incited the Iranian people to rebel against the government. This goal creates a huge concern for Islamabad as regime change or even just its attempt in Iran can result in hampering the stability of the current Iranian government. Instability in a state lessens its capacity for effective governance, which leads to the formation of ungoverned spaces within it.

The possibility of the emergence of more ungoverned spaces inside Iran is a huge concern for Pakistan. The Sistan and Balochistan region of Iran is already riddled with an ongoing insurgency and hosts such spaces. These ungoverned spaces inside Iran act as a safe haven for insurgents. These spaces serve as a base of insurgent activities with little to no restrictions. They also become an escape area in case of counterinsurgency efforts by either state, thus limiting their effectiveness. In the past, Pakistan and Iran both had concerns over each other’s border region being used by insurgents to conduct attacks inside their territory. Pakistan firmly supports the stability of the Iranian government to avoid worsening the situation. This opens a window of opportunity for Pakistan in its relations with Iran, where the two states can increase their cooperation in intelligence sharing and ensure that no insurgent activity is conducted against the other state from their soil. It will result in further strengthening of relations between the two countries.

Trade is another area which was affected in this current conflict. Chabahar is a major Iranian port, developed by Iran with the help of India to establish an access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. India invested around $370 million to develop the port to bypass the Pakistani route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The Indian goal was to remove Pakistani leverage on the Indian transit trade to that region. This would also have undermined the importance of Gwadar Port, which was developed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to provide similar access to the world. States present in the region had already been collaborating to use the Pakistani transit route.

India showed great restraint in showing support for Iran. India refused to participate in the SCO joint remarks to condemn Israeli attacks in accordance with international law and the UN charter. The main reason for such a policy by the Indian government is the influence of Hindutva on it. The current Indian administration sees the Israeli government with congruence in their hostile attitude towards Muslims. On the contrary, Pakistan threw its full diplomatic support behind Iran in its right to self-defence and sovereignty. This conflict gives Pakistan an opportunity to work in collaboration with Iran and its Chabahar project. Instead of working against each other, Chabahar and Gwadar ports can work as sister ports to handle larger operations together.

The current conflict also presents a lot of challenges for Pakistan. Pakistan has a dependence on the USA in a lot of areas. The USA is the largest importer of Pakistani goods, making a large chunk of Pakistani export revenue. Pakistan is already part of the IMF bailout package, which is crucial for Pakistan to sustain its economy. The bailout package, at least in part, depends on the approval of the US government.  Pakistan is currently in the process of making a mineral deal with the US that will bring additional revenue to the country. It will also help to strengthen ties between the two states.

In recent times, there have been efforts to revive cordial relations between the two states by Pakistan. It included visits of Pakistani officials to the US, after it brokered a peace deal between India and Pakistan. Iran is considered an adversary by the US. Pakistani support for Iran can result in jeopardising all of these efforts. A silver lining does exist in this situation, as Pakistan has good relations with both states. It can help the US-Iran rapprochement as it did in the case of the US-China rapprochement in the 1970s. The prospect of Pakistan’s role in such a case exists as both the US and Iran showed their willingness to prioritise diplomatic solutions to problems over military means.

The current Iran-Israel conflict poses some indirect threats to Pakistan. It also provides some opportunities for collaboration between Iran and Pakistan. Pakistan has to navigate a delicate balance between developing friendly ties with a neighbouring state and avoiding antagonising its international partners. The best way to do this is by using a liberalist approach of interdependence. Pakistan should collaborate with Iran in trade, people-to-people contact and exchange of services, etc., while adhering to international law and norms.