The Indus water treaty was signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 brokered by World Bank in order to resolve the water crisis among both states. Through this treaty, the Indus water river is distributed between Eastern and Western rivers. The Eastern Rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej were allocated to India and the Western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were allocated to Pakistan. Indus River is a trans-boundary river of Asia. Pakistan being an Agro-country is heavily dependent on the fresh river coming through the Indus River as of 90% of the agricultural crops of Pakistan are dependent on this water for irrigation making it most significant treaty for the country.

The suspension of treaty will cause disastrous effects on the country especially when the sowing and harvesting season is about to start for agricultural crops. During agriculture, plenty of fresh water is being utilized during irrigation and suspension of treaty means less availability of water which will affect about 37%-40% of Pakistan’s total labor force. The agricultural sector serves as largest employment sector in Pakistan. This will also increase the ratio of migration of people from rural areas to already overpopulated urban cities raising more concerns for economic imbalances.

The reduced water inflow in Pakistan will also affect the hydroelectric power sector as Pakistan’s largest Rivers Tarbela and Mangla stored the water flowing from Indus basin to generate electricity. The reduced water inflow will pave ways for more blackouts and load shedding due to less generation of electricity. An average estimate of contribution of these dams is about 30%-35% to hydroelectric power of country. Various Urban cities are dependent on the water supply from Indus river suspension of treaty will cause water shortage in cities leading to poor sanitation and emerge to several health problems. This will fuel the economic distress in the country heavily impacting the economic boom and raising poverty. It can also provoke inter-provincial tensions between Punjab and Sindh over water crisis.

Pakistan is already falling due to over-extraction of groundwater. Pakistan is fourth largest groundwater user country estimated about 50-60 billion cubic meters is extracted per year. Rivers helps to recharge the groundwater aquifers but water scarcity will restrict it. Hence, this can cause dual crisis for Pakistan both groundwater and surface water supply loss resulting into several environmental concerns and biodiversity loss.

The Indus water treaty works as a peaceful mechanism between the two countries to regulate the flow of water. It is historically marked as one of the successful agreement fostering mutual trust between the two neighboring countries despite of various conflicts and tensions. As India controls the upstream part of river so it has an edge to control, divert and store water before it reaches Pakistan. The suspension of treaty would be considered as an act of war and threat to national security of Pakistan. This could result in military and diplomatic retaliation. India’s having strategic advantage to control the upper stream of rivers enable it to weaponries water that would heightened tensions and threaten not only bilateral peace but regional stability as a whole. As already due to rise in population South Asia is facing water problems, complicating their geopolitical positioning.

The suspension of this treaty will pose several questions on international agreement as this treaty would threaten other Transboundary countries water peaceful cooperation. This would weaken trust on global norms that countries can violate or suspend the treaty according to their political convenience. It can intensify global conflicts among the countries where rivers flowing from upstream countries towards downstream countries raising water scarcity in the world. If India suspends treaty Pakistan can took this case in international court of justice on the charge of violating International Law. The international law permit countries to protect the binding treaties and respect the International law of water commitments i.e. UN Watercourses convention. As this treaty was mediated by World Bank Pakistan can request an arbitration panel under supervision of World Bank to resolve the issue.

Though various legal actions can be taken against India act of suspension and violating 60 years old treaty but it would require time consuming actions and even if action taken they are dependent for the Indian cooperation to respond to then willingly. In this processing and implementation actions against suspension of treaty long suffering would be caused underway due to water crisis.

Pakistan needs to act strategically and promptly against this crisis. Pakistan requires to built dams and reservoir to store water during rainy reasons in order to save water for dry days and to eliminate the risk of floods .Farmers should be introduced with new modern irrigation methods like dripping and spillover which utilizes less water comparative to old traditional methods.  In addition to it, Pakistan should coordinate with other world players for mediation to convince India to protect the water sharing agreement. Pakistan is highly dependent on hydropower alternatives to it like solar, wind turbines and gas and coal plant should be introduced to reduced resilience on water generated electricity.

In a nut shell, the suspension of Indus water treaty would impact Pakistan’s economy, society and national security. It would significantly impact agricultural sector resulting to massive unemployment among poor labors. The violation of this treaty not only disturbs the bilateral relations but impact the whole region stability. Pakistan should respond with strong diplomacy, legal advocacy, and long-term resilience planning. Establishing sustainable water management and sustaining peaceful bilateral relations are not just national priorities they are essential for the region’s collective future.