Pakistan stands among nations most vulnerable to the harmful impacts of climate change. Contributing less than 1 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions yet it is bearing substantial costs over the years due to recurrent climate induced disasters. These events, beyond causing the destruction of both infrastructure and livelihoods, claimed a considerable human toll. The floods that swept through the southern regions resulted in direct financial losses surpassing $30 billion. Furthermore, indirect losses stemming from disruptions in the supply chain contributed to rise of inflation.

In July 2023, Pakistan introduced its inaugural seven-year National Adaptation Plan (NAP) spanning from 2023 to 2030. This plan is drafted to confront the adverse impacts of climate change within the country. Encompassing the years 2023 to 2030, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2023 targets key areas, particularly water resource management and agriculture. Despite its focus, the plan exhibits deficiencies, notably neglecting deforestation concerns and lack of pertinent climate data for 2023.

There is a dearth of concrete measures addressing issues such as agricultural contamination. Despite coordination efforts, the plan falls short due to insufficient consultation with stakeholders, particularly non-governmental actors. This deficiency impedes the development of essential skills and expertise among stakeholders. Rectifying these issues is imperative for the effective implementation of climate adaptation measures in Pakistan.

The plan acknowledges the importance of identifying funding gaps and mobilizing resources but lacks specificity regarding the utilization of various financing mechanisms. Despite recognizing the need for strategies to attract climate finance, engage the sector, and ensure sustainable long-term funding, the plan falls short in providing detailed information on these strategies and the necessary implementation steps. Streamlining coordination methods is crucial for effective budget management, distribution, and administration. This highlights Pakistan’s substantial dependence on foreign funds to implement adaptation strategies. Additionally, the adaptation plan lacks an effective strategy for mobilizing private sector assets, necessitating a structured financing mechanism to enhance climate change adaptation initiatives.

The recent COP28 meeting addressed the climate change concerns. While considerable debate centered around the energy sector, addressing deforestation is also essential for achieving net zero. Transforming this into practical decarbonization demands collaboration from all industries, including finance and investment. Pakistan requires $340 billion to tackle climate and development challenges from 2023 to 2030, an amount equivalent to 10 percent of the cumulative GDP over the same period. Pakistan confronts a lack of necessary physical infrastructure crucial for facilitating the widespread expansion of electric vehicles, including the absence of charging stations and the technical capacity for production. Setbacks were encountered by the Billion Tree Tsunami project in the aftermath of the floods, affecting its advancement.

The ‘Recharge Pakistan’ initiative, a significant project with the goal of alleviating flood and drought risks within the Indus Basin, has established a partnership of $77.8 million involving the US, the Green Climate Fund, the Coca-Cola Foundation, and the World Wildlife Fund. The approach to achieving these objectives is currently unclear. Clearly, the challenge does not stem from a lack of ambition but rather from deficient planning and execution.

High political and credit risk discourages private sector investment even in bankable climate opportunities. To mitigate these risks in Pakistan, it is essential to use instruments like concessional financing from international agencies and credit guarantees for commercial banks involved in climate investments. We need to actively build a robust local green finance market, encouraging companies to invest in climate mitigation and adaptation through domestic financial channels.

Pakistan’s participation in COP-28 certainly holds significance, providing a platform for the country to express its position on climate change issues, advocate for its interests, and potentially secure additional funds but relying extensively on increased external debt to fund projects within a climate mitigation strategy, with uncertain scalability outcomes, poses a risk of worsening Pakistan’s already precarious external debt position. A viable climate mitigation strategy should prioritize effectively deploying existing resources, ensuring scalable outcomes related to climate change without heightened dependence on external funding.

Be it COP28 or NAP23, Failure to promptly establish a national consensus on climate action might make the imminent threat is undeniable; while Pakistan’s per capita emissions remain negligible, the nation bears a disproportionate impact. This may not only result in heightened economic losses but also jeopardize livelihoods, incomes, and lives due to preventable climatic events. Facing a burden of external debt and a growing financing gap, is Pakistan in a situation where it can fully concentrate on finding solutions to address climate change sustainability?