International recognition is not the only challenge that Afghan government faces: economic collapse, cascading poverty, and terrorism are the tip of the iceberg. The government is in hot waters for breaking the Doha Agreement,  harbouring Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and banning women from public life. Are the mounting challenges a means to an end for the Taliban regime?

Gilzay Clan and Haqqani Network in the Taliban are in a power struggle to dominate the government. Haibatullah Akhundzada, a religious scholar, was appointed the Supreme Leader to keep a truce between the two parties. He gave 13 provinces in the South to Mullah Yaqoob of the Gilzay Clan and 21 in the East to the opposing clan led by Sirajuddin Haqqani.  Abdul Ghani Baradar of Quetta Shura is given charge of political affairs despite opposition from the Haqqani Network. The Gilzay are gaining popularity in the South, prompting Haqqani Network to increase their hold on the Loya Paktia region- that borders South- with the help of the Islamic State.

There is a divide between moderates and the on-ground fighters among the Taliban as well. While the interim cabinet presents a more peaceful front, radicals such as Haqqani Network and Gilzay stick to the old military ideology. The killing of Al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul is one such instance. Mullah Yaqoob of Gilzay publically blamed Pakistan for providing airspace to the United States to attack Zawahiri. On the other hand, the ‘moderates’, like Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, had talks on economic and security cooperation with Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, to diffuse the ongoing deadlock. If the ideological clash persists, there may be in-house fighting amongst the Taliban.

The legitimacy issue of the Taliban government is a hurdle to Afghanistan’s participation in global affairs. The United Nations Security Council Resolution in 2021 did not recognise its governmental status. Other countries are yet to accept the Taliban as rulers of Afghanistan. The Taliban, too, are determined to seek international recognition by nominating a spokesperson for the United Nations and pursuing high diplomatic relations with China, India, Russia and the UAE. They understand that without legitimacy, the government will stay in hot waters; it will not be able to join international organisations, form economic pacts, exclusively govern and be free from foreign military interventions. However, the international community has concerns over human rights violations, terrorism and harbouring of international terrorist organisations like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Unless the Taliban come to terms with the global demands, legitimacy seems unlikely.

The Taliban face high external and internal security threats. The Islamic State Khorasan Province has a hold on Nangarhar, Ghazni, Herat, Balkh, Paktia, Paktika and Khost regions of Afghanistan. Recently, the Taliban claimed to have killed Islamic State’s chief Abu Umar Khurasani, and Islamic State carried out mass shootings and suicide bombings at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. Anti-Taliban elements such as National Resistance Front and Afghanistan Freedom Front have also emerged. The former has expanded its control over Badakhshan, Baghlan, Jowzjan, Kunduz, Panjshir, Takhar and Samangan provinces, prompting the Taliban to send their forces. The National Resistance movement has carried out several attacks on Taliban bases across the country.

Pakistan-Taliban tense ties are bad for Afghanistan. The ongoing border skirmishes and crackdown on around 1500 Afghan refugees in Sindh show how the relationship has gone downhill. The terrorist attacks in Pakistan, according to the Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies, have increased by 56 per cent since the Taliban government came to power. Similarly, Mullah Yaqoob, son of Mullah Omer, demanded that India train Afghan troops, which has raised security concerns for Pakistan. Taliban’s decision to step up against Pakistan may become its Achilles heel. Pakistan has been Afghanistan’s avid supporter asking the international community for humanitarian aid, taking in refugees, and mediating peace with the United States in the past. Taliban may lose its primary ally if it cuts ties with the country. Furthermore, Afghanistan, as a landlocked country, needs its assistance for trade and transit.

Afghanistan’s economic conditions worsened after the Taliban came to power. According to the UN, the economy has lost nearly $5 billion since August 2021. Food poverty has risen by approximately 35%, followed by a loss of more than 700,000 jobs. Small firms and women-led businesses have taken the biggest hit owing to the lack of working capital and the government’s stringent policies for women. International support is limited. China-backed out from investing in Afghanistan, alleging that the Taliban has ties with the separatist ‘East Turkistan Islamic Movement in Xinjiang province.

Afghanistan might be witnessing a horrific humanitarian crisis. According to World Food Program, only 2% of the population has enough food and over three million children suffer from malnutrition. The healthcare system, which was heavily dependent on foreign aid, has collapsed as primary care facilities are shutting down. The ban on education and jobs has excluded women from public life. The Taliban have abolished the Ministry of Women’s Affairs. Internal and external displacement has also increased in the wake of the economic crisis.

The Taliban government needs to mitigate the mounting challenges to strengthen its government and stabilise Afghanistan. To begin with, the Taliban can have a localised peace dialogue with anti-government elements. It can balance its ideology with international law and norms to win global support and recognition. It also needs to revisit its discriminatory policies against women.  The West should also reconsider its abandonment of the Taliban:  soft power such as aid and humanitarian support can limit harbouring of foreign terrorist organisations. A diplomatic presence of the UN and other organisations can engage in peace-building and countering extremism with the regime and civil society. The United States, in the wake of the humanitarian crisis, must unfreeze Afghan reserves.