The military relationship between Pakistan and the U.S has spanned many decades and been a tumultuous affair, but one that usually gave leeway to the superpower regardless of the consequences they wrought. That is, until now. Pakistan has delivered a firm refusal to the U.S regarding building more bases in Pakistan. So, what changed? How will this affect future relations and the ongoing issues present in Afghanistan?

The U2 Incident 

Although Pakistan was a country of little political interest to the U.S, it still found itself of some use with the advent of the Cold War.

The U.S realized in the 1950s that Pakistan was an important tactical spot to pry into Soviet affairs, and Pakistan promptly provided the land for a base realizing they could use this as the perfect opportunity for an exchange in services. The U.S received it’s peephole into the Soviet Union and Pakistan gained an ally that would help it modernize its military with millions of dollars. 

PAF Camp Badaber, then known as Peshawar Air Station became the site for the infamous U-2 incident. The U-2 spy plane was launched from the Peshawar base with the purpose of recording military operations in a top-secret reconnaissance mission but was promptly shot down in Soviet territory. This event marked a significant milestone for U.S and Pakistan’s military relationship – it announced itself to the international community.

An Opportunity for Friendship to Flourish

The U-2 incident was a failure swept under the rug and the Peshawar Air Station quietly ceased operation ten years later in 1970. However, the Afghanistan-Soviet war presented an opportunity to reignite this relationship. 

Pakistan was motivated by the potential of an Afghanistan that was less threatening and even capable of someday providing a connection to central Asia which would surely yield economic power. The U.S found the war to be another opportunity to go face to face with the Soviet Union and stamp out communism in Afghanistan, and Pakistan to be the perfect next door neighbour to assist in this ambition. 

The U.S would, over the coming years, funnel millions of dollars worth of aid under Operation Cyclone to Pakistan in its efforts to support the Soviet fighting Mujahideen. When the war ended in their favour and the Soviets withdrew, so too did the allyship between the U.S and Pakistan.

A Rift in Relations 

With the end of the Cold War in sight and no further use for Pakistan as a backyard to fight the Soviet with, U.S’s friendly demeanor to Pakistan began to wane.

Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons became a key point of contention in the U. S’s eyes, while the superpower turned a blind eye at India’s own pursuit of atomic power. With no more Soviet Union in play, the U.S had begun to warm up to Pakistan’s staunch rival India, while its association with Pakistan itself steadily crumbled. Economic embargoes were constantly threatened against the smaller country and military aid was also consequently halted. 

It seemed relations would continue to deteriorate up until a sudden change in priorities – the Afghan war. 

The Afghan War and its Consequences 

9/11 spurred attention back to Afghanistan and within weeks of the twin towers attack, another war had begun. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan that aimed to oust the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups from the country. Within the next year, almost 10,000 troops were in Afghanistan – a number that would soar during Obama’s term. 

Suddenly all the disagreements and sanctions were lifted and put aside as Pakistan took a return to the stage as the U.S’s ally in war and Afghanistan’s opportunistic neighbor. 

In October 2001, a little over a month after 9/11, the Pakistani government had given authorization to the CIA and US Air Force to use Shamsi Airfield for military operations. The base was further developed for the U.S military’s needs. As the war stretched longer, so did the amount of military access Pakistan provided to its ally on the other side of the world, in the form of other bases, PAF Base Shahbaz, Pasni Airport, PAF Base Nur Khan.

In exchange for Pakistan’s ally-ship, the U.S would spend the next several years funding Pakistan and its efforts in war, reimbursing any war related expenses and dispensing any other necessary aid. Throughout the war, Pakistan would work with its troops on the ground level, controlling the tribal border belt where the presence of Taliban and al-Qaeda militants was the densest. The U.S would then send annual payments for military costs accrued in these operations.

A Steady Decline – Pakistan, Drone Warfare, And U.S Indiscretion

Friction between the two countries in their military relationship was not new; there had been a plethora of complaints on the U.S side that the Pakistani military was not giving efficient receipts or results to justify the amount of aid they were receiving, and Pakistan had responded with incredulity at these accusations. 

Discord would fester between the two nations as the war prolonged itself. In 2008, Bush changed his approach to drone strikes, deciding the amount of Taliban militants moving across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in FATA to be unacceptable. The amount of drone strikes would be increased, and the U.S decided to forgo its policy thus far to communicate and gain permission from Pakistan in advance for drone strikes. The U.S would now be at liberty to command strikes in Waziristan whenever they so wished. 

This wasn’t to say there weren’t already a great number of deaths from drone strikes so far. The 2006 Chenagai airstrike for example, which killed 82 people total, as missiles aimed at a madrassa full of young students. The attack resulted in a retaliation, according to military officials, by a suicide bomber on a military camp resulting in the death of 42 soldiers. This airstrike and its consequences reign as a clear example of how U.S military irresponsibility led to hostility that would bite Pakistan in the back more than it did the U.S

The body count from this drone war would only increase during Obama’s administration, and Pakistan suffered the brunt of it. It was no well-hidden secret that civilian casualties were at an uneven ratio compared to the actual number of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters being killed, a ratio that begged to ask whether it was even worth it. It was a resentful era of U.S – Pakistani relations where Pakistani tolerance for U.S involvement in the land was at an all-time low. Pakistan was not even public about US military presence in the area because of the growing unpopularity.

There were other incidents too that eroded the already precocious trust between the two nations. The 2011 NATO attack, for example, left 28 soldiers dead to the shock of not just Pakistan but the international community. The U.S apologized, but only after Pakistan had cut off supply lines as a reprisal and kicked the U.S out of the Shamsi Airfield Base that had been used significantly for the U.S drone programme. 

2021: So Where Are We Now?

1. Unprecedented Waters – Pakistan’s New Stance

Pakistan’s co-operation with the U.S as an ally in matters of war has been a consistent characteristic of the two countries relations for decades – until now. The tension the Afghanistan War brought, alongside drone strikes and a growing anti-American sentiment on the Pakistani population’s part, has culminated into something unprecedented.

In a statement in May, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi gave a statement that sharply denied the possibility of any future operation of U.S military bases in Pakistan or support in conducting future drone strikes in Afghanistan. 

“Let this house and the Pakistani nation be a witness to my testimony that under [Prime Minister] Imran Khan there will be no American base built on Pakistani soil. Forget about the past,” stated the FO. “The government of Pakistan has categorically said that we will not allow kinetic use of drones nor are we interested in the surveillance of your drones.” 

This rejection of U.S military requests comes as a first, but not an unforeseen one, given the developments in the Afghan war as well as other political factors. 

2. Reasons for Decision

Prime Minister Imran Khan, even before his election, has always been a critic of U.S drone strikes, having even led more than one protest against it. It is not surprising upon election that he should continue to stick with these concerns, and implement policies that reflect his distrust in U.S military involvement in Pakistan and the War on Terror as a whole. 

In context of Pakistan’s history of participation in most U.S, the prime minister stated at the 2020 World Economic Forum, “Militancy became an impediment. Once I came into power, I decided Pakistan will only partner with peace. We will not become part of any other conflict.”

The decision doesn’t just stem from Pakistan’s own losses from engaging in these wars. Pakistan is considering that, at this point in time, other countries and groups may see accession to U.S demands to be a sign that Pakistan intends to play the same role it has for decades in terms of military affiliation with the superpower.

U.S hostility towards China and disfavor to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are two factors that would definitely make a US military presence in Pakistan something its long standing ally would find questionable at best. 

Also, to be taken into consideration are Khan’s efforts with turning over a new leaf with Iran. Continuing the habit of US-Pakistan military affiliations by allowing bases would be antithetical to the effort. 

Primarily, however, the concern once again centers around its turbulent neighbor. The Taliban’s rule over a considerable amount of Afghanistan districts. Its endurance through the years despite numerous efforts has allowed it to emerge as the most powerful stakeholder in the region. A party one would be careful to upset. 

With the U.S military quickly pouring out of Afghanistan in light of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the war, the Taliban have been quick on their feet; the militants have captured 50 bases since May, including a highway connecting the country to Tajikistan which they promptly forced open. 

With the Taliban gaining momentum in Afghanistan and the peace talks faltering, they remain a steady bet as to who may come out on top in the worst-case scenario – a civil war. With the war finally over, Pakistan extending continued support to the U.S would surely incense the Taliban, leaving Pakistan stuck with a hostile neighbor once more. 

With Imran Khan’s affinity for the religious right, criticism of U.S involvement in Pakistan, and focus on Pakistan being a ‘partner of peace’, it seems unlikely that Pakistan would ultimately pick a pernicious ex-partner in war over a potentially stable relationship with the more powerful party in Afghanistan. 

What the Future Holds 

It seems like after decades of deteriorating relations, Pakistan may finally be finding new ties elsewhere. Priorities have shifted from propitiating the U.S to nurturing the ties that already exist with its new rival, China, and placating its new neighbor that failed to be quelled.

The Afghanistan war is finally at its end, but with an outcome both Pakistan and its ally would find disappointing had they known from the start. 

Without the pretext of a shared conflict, military relations between the two nations can no longer prosper. Pakistan isn’t interested in hosting a guest its allies would be opposed to, and has nothing left to gain from an ally that has caused it so much harm in the name of war. Currently there are no more US military bases in Pakistan, and the road does not point to any springing up in the future either.