Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” in already existing conflicts, turning them into a vicious cycle. Pakistan and India, since their inception, have been in conflict over issues ranging from territory to water sharing. The Indus water system, particularly with its Eastern rivers, forms the lifeline of Pakistan. It has five rivers, all of which either originate or flow through India before entering Pakistan. This system alone is responsible for irrigating 65% of agricultural land, which is responsible for 90% of fibre and food production. India first stopped the water supply to Pakistan amidst the first Kashmir conflict in 1948. Water sharing and conflict were intertwined with each other for the two nations from the very beginning.

The water dispute was regulated under the Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, in which both states agreed on a water-sharing mechanism. The treaty endured over time and was even upheld during the Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971. One critical area that this treaty ignored to cover was provisions for climate change and environmental issues. Climate change was not a major concern at that time, while enough water was present in the system to meet the needs of the two states. Over the years, as the climate situation worsened, the shortcomings in the treaty started to show up.

India and Pakistan both expressed their concerns over the treaty. India claimed that the treaty is unfair, providing more water to Pakistan than it should be entitled to. India invokes the Harmon Doctrine, which argues for exclusive rights on water flowing through the territory of the upper riparian state. There exists no legal standing for this doctrine, and it is often disregarded by legal experts and scholars. On the other hand, Pakistan often stresses that India fails to comply with the treaty by withdrawing more water from the system than allocated to it. Pakistan also highlights India’s failure to share the data on water flow and management agreed in the treaty on international forums. These disagreements over the treaty thus emerge as a source of growing rift between the two neighbours.

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier in already fragile India and Pakistan relations. Two states have long been in conflict with each other over territorial disputes, namely being Kashmir. This resulted in several armed conflicts between them, like 1965, 1971 and the Kargil war. Even during recent times, both nations saw military confrontations in 2019 and 2025. India previously hinted at suspending or abrogating the treaty, citing national security concerns. It was in 2025 that India illegally and unilaterally suspended the treaty without going through proper channels. The dispute resolution mechanism through a commission or a neutral party present in the treaty utterly failed to solve the issues.

The treaty that survived in previous conflicts failed to sustain itself this time. This suggests that climate change does have the potential to change even the outlook of the conflict. In this case, the Indus Water Treaty was suspended with no signs of restoring it in the near future by the Indian stakeholders. The outlook of the conflict was particularly changed to the problems of 21^st century. Adding the dimension of terrorism in a water sharing treaty was one of it despite having no legal basis for it.

The suspension of the treaty is seen as an existential threat by Pakistan. Pakistani politicians, including its premier, said that any disruptions of the water flow in the rivers outside of the treaty will be considered as an act of war. Pakistan regard its water security as a red line. Pakistan, regarding water and climate security as a part of national security, creates a situation in which conflict becomes more likely. It pushes the state to act militarily in case its national security is compromised.

India suspended the treaty instead of abrogating it. Building infrastructure to divert enough water from the Indus Water system by India is a long-term prospect. In the short run, it cannot divert enough water to pose a resource scarcity threat to Pakistan. This acts as a silver lining in the whole fiasco, but the threat persists as India has announced its will to carry out such long projects. If such a project does happen, it will only increase the adverse consequences of climate change already faced by Pakistan.

Climate change, while having adverse effects on the internal situation of India and Pakistan, poses a real threat to conflict between the two nations. Acts done by one state while regarded as an attack on national security by another state, coupled with climate change, only worsen the situation. Climate-induced risks not only subvert the enduring treaties but also multiply the risk of conflict.  This decreases the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the disputes, which further spirals into increased conflict.