The US-China rivalry is expected to heat up under Trump 2.0 keeping in mind Mr Trump’s prime areas of consideration, national security and US trade interests. Donald Trump is known for his volatile protectionist policies when it comes to enabling greater economic self-sufficiency for America. The first Trump administration saw US tariffs on China worth $550 billion worth of Chinese products, while Chinese tariffs on US worth $185 billion of US goods. President Joe Biden further enhanced some of these tariffs. Along with this, Mr Biden also placed restrictive policies with regards to US investments in China concerning technology and AI systems. President Trump will keep such policies intact.

President Trump announced 10% tariff on Chinese Fentanyl in February 2025, claiming it is being illegally trafficked in US through the Mexican border. Fentanyl has been misused extensively by the Americans causing the president to allege that it added strain to the already burdened healthcare system. These tariffs came into effect from February 4th 2025. Chinese spokesperson commented that trade wars have no winners and what intensified this tit-for tat is Chinese implementation of 10% tariff on coal imported from the US. China also responded with tariffs on US imported natural gas and farm machinery.

Mr Trump introduced policies aimed at controlling Chinese use of advanced technologies during his first term in the presidential office and he is expected to further tighten such policies.  Export Control Reform Act was enacted in 2018 to control Chinese access to advanced technologies. US recently ordered Taiwan to stop selling semiconductor chips to China. On similar lines, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is expected to gain more momentum under Trump 2.0. Considering U.S. national security interests, it has reduced (or blocked in some cases) Chinese investments across the industrial sector. Such steps further trigger U.S.-China rivalry.

The current US Congress is infiltrated with anti-China sentiment. It has been pivotal in setting national security measures targeting China. Not only this, but Congress has also shown bipartisan support for legislation aimed at securing U.S.’s supply chains. Furthermore, many China-hawks has been appointed by President Trump for his cabinet. President’s pick for Secretary of State is known for his aggressive stance against the economic and military rise of China. This is expected to lead to a consensus treating China as America’s main rival which will in turn intensify U.S.-China rivalry.

President Trump’s 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights China as a threat to national security and this perspective is still engraved in U.S. policies. In this regard Trump 2.0 will expectedly focus on Artificial Intelligence when used by foreign adversaries to acquire sensitive data. On similar grounds of upholding national security President recently stated that he would take back Panama Canal from Panama. The reason stated was Panama’s unfair practice of allowing China to practically control the canal. Panama has denied involvement in any unfair practices including different shipping costs for U.S. and China. If Donald Trump manifests his plan of controlling this crucial transit between Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean, it’ll heighten tensions between China and the United States of America.

President Trump’s delay to enforce TikTok ban coupled with a measured approach to tariffs, suggests a possible window of negotiations between the two nations. On January 20th, 2025 Mr Trump signed an executive order to delay banning of this application. A law had been passed under the presidency of America’s former president to ban this Chinese owned app over speculations of data breach. Millions of Americans are using this app and U.S. feared their data was being transferred to this adversary nation via TikTok. The parent company was asked to sell TikTok to an American entity or face a complete ban. President Trump’s executive order has given ByteDance time to secure a potential buyer and prevent a complete ban for this application.

Elon Musk, U.S. special government employee and businessman met China’s Vice President early this year. The Tesla owner was called by Mr Han Zheng to amplify investments in China. Musk reportedly affirmed his commitment to strengthen Tesla’s economic ties with China. This meeting not only hints towards Chinese intent to establish economic cooperation with Elon Musk but it has also been seen as an intermediatory between President Trump and Chinese government since Musk is America’s technological and economic giant. Mr Musk is also closely associated with Trump 2.0. It is worth mentioning that Mr Musk has immensely invested in China and half of tesla’s vehicles are manufactured there.

It is no doubt that Trump 2.0 tariffs will be freshly calibrated with people like Elon Musk opening a room for negotiations between the two states. This should not overshadow the view that throughout his presidential campaign, Donald Trump has shown a tendency to protect American economic interests and national security considerations at all costs. This is in line with his first term in office. If this trend is to follow, Trump 2.0 will be riddled with tariffs which will trigger a chain reaction of anti-China bipartisan policies. A melting of ice between China and U.S. is unlikely in the near future as both work towards hegemony and economic might.