Government’s recent decision to repatriate illegal Afghan immigrants back to Afghanistan due to ‘security concerns’ seems to be more counterproductive than beneficial. The decision has sparked criticism in both domestic and international media. The influx of Afghans as refugees, settlers, and illegal immigrants has been a regular feature at Pakistan’s western border since the 1980s. Along with this, smuggling, extremism, money laundering, extorsion, and infiltration of militants belonging to terrorist outfits such as the TTP and IS-K have also been taking place at the Pak-Afghan Border. Due to their geographical proximity, regions close to the turbulent border such as the erstwhile FATA and parts of Baluchistan have been marred with unrest and disorder. The basic point of concern here is whether this robust repatriation drive will really address Pakistan’s security concerns in KP and Baluchistan.

Ever since the start of US led War on Terror, Pakistan has undertaken a number of steps to restore law and order in its bordering region with Afghanistan. These measures include consequent military operations, border fencing, and legislations to merge Federally Administered Tribal Areas with KP Province. These military and political courses of action have often failed to find lasting solutions. Extremism has always been there while militancy tends to return as soon as the military campaign is done with. The linkage of illegal border crossing and terrorism on Pakistani soil cannot be denied, but at the same time repatriation cannot be the only answer to Pakistan’s security question. Will repatriation alone contain terror activities of TTP, IS-K, and banned Baluch separatist groups? Will the Taliban government in Kabul sincerely target TTP safe heavens after the repatriation?

Ties between Islamabad and Kabul are at their lowest ebb. The bitterness has come back even after a regime change in Afghanistan. Accusations are responded by counteraccusations and hostile statements are countered by even more hostile statements from the other end. Recent developments show that peaceful coexistence of Pakistan and Afghanistan does not seem to be possible, and the best possible scenario will only be the absence of war or any armed hostility. Kabul has repeatedly denied Pakistan’s concern of TTP safe heavens on Afghanistan’s territory. Regarding the repatriation drive, Afghan Taliban have openly voiced their anger and concerns. Repatriation of illegal immigrants will add further sourness in the relations between Kabul and Islamabad, and Pakistan’s concern of TTP hideouts on the Afghan soil will not be addressed. The question here is whether how will the TTP operations be contained if they keep on enjoying safe heavens inside Afghanistan?

Repatriation of Afghan refugees will have little impact on the surge of militancy but what it will surely address are Pakistan’s economic security concerns. Since there is more or less no operational currency other than the USD in Afghanistan nowadays, the Afghan immigrants travelling via border crossings of Torkham and Chaman have been responsible for siphoning off US Dollars from Pakistan into Afghanistan, causing a precarious and unprecedented shortage of the world’s most powerful currency inside Pakistan. One may question the authorities whether why was the shortage of USD not realized and predicted prior to taking an extreme step such as mass repatriation. Nevertheless, millions of Afghans being sent home would certainly control the exchange of USD and its illegal border crossing into Afghanistan. Moreover, since the Taliban takeover in 2021, millions of Afghans have settled in metropolitan cities, causing prices of basic commodities and accommodation rents to skyrocket.

The absence of a democratically elected government in Pakistan brings us to a question if the current interim setup is legally empowered to take such an enormous foreign policy decision. Obviously, it isn’t, as the only mandate it has is to enable a smooth transition to a democratically elected government within a period of ninety days as clearly enshrined in the Constitution. Some may argue that a politically appointed government may not be able to take such a huge decision as it has a lot of stakes involved. On the contrary, any decision taken by a de jure government is well versed and thought upon as political figures are aware of the fact that they will be accounted for what they do when they are sent to the corridors of power.

The repatriation of ‘illegal immigrants’ raises a host of questions that need to be answered. First, why in the first-place millions of illegal undocumented Afghans were allowed to enter, settle, and earn in Pakistan? Second, what kind of a policy failure that was and is there any accountability going on that we know off? We can only wait and see if this repatriation really does serve Pakistan’s ‘security concerns’, or if it will be another policy failure. Government officials have been heard comparing the mass deportation of refugees and illegal immigrants from the EU in recent years with Pakistan’s case. To set records straight, EU does not share a porous border with Afghanistan and it will never have to face the kind of repercussions Pakistan does. The west is done with Afghanistan and it is nowhere on their agenda. On the other hand, Afghanistan is and will remain one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for Pakistan and any policy pertaining to the war-torn country needs to be well thought out with the input of all the stakeholders involved.

Author is a Research Associate at the Centre for Law and Security and can be reached at asfandyarkhan86@gmail.com or on twitter @AsfandKhan6