Democrats are back in power at the capitol and so is the United States in South Asia. The U.S wants to get out of the longest war it has fought in Afghanistan and for that to happen, all regional actors in South Asia need to cooperate, especially Pakistan and India. The Biden administration may be playing a mediatory role between the two nations to ensure that there is peace on all fronts, especially the Line of Control so that the Afghan peace process can continue uninterrupted.

On the 24th of February, the Directors Generals of Pakistan and India unexpectedly announced that they are recommitting to the 2003 ceasefire line agreement on the de facto Line of Control in Kashmir. The two forces said that they intended to address each other’s core issues and concerns which can disturb peace and lead to violence. It may be interesting to note here that there was no report of backchannel diplomatic dialogue between the two sides before this joint statement was announced.

This pledge to end violence also came at a time when Pakistan and India’s relationship was at its sorest in decades. The decline of the relationship amplified in 2017 when India blamed Pakistan for the Uri attacks which were one of the deadliest attacks conducted on Indian forces at the time. The tensions between the two neighbors continued with Pulwama and later with the unilateral changes made by India in Jammu and Kashmir by making it a union territory in 2019. However, the one new development that has emerged between the two nations is that one of the longest wars fought in their neighborhood in Afghanistan is coming to an end.

As the news about the 2003 agreement surfaced, the State Department of the US issued a statement welcoming the news as positive. The State Department when question on the US’s role in the agreement said they continue to support any direct dialogue between the two neighbors’ which addresses other issues of similar concerns. While the US department did not explicitly admit to facilitating the reaffirmation of the 2003 agreement, the state department did admit that since Biden Administration has come in power, they have urged both nations to reduce tension. Outside of Pakistan, India, and their people, it’s the US that benefits from this thaw in tense relations between the two nuclear neighbors.

To understand why Washington benefits from peace between the two neighbors is to understand the power dynamics in Afghanistan. Afghanistan presently has two peace deals going on, one between the Washington and Taliban called the Doha agreement and the second between the Taliban and the civilian government in Afghanistan. The intra afghan dialogue is ongoing but it has been stalled and the deadline of 1^st May on which the US troops are to leave Afghanistan is approaching fast.

It is for this reason that the US now wants to expedite the intra Afghan peace process so that a permanent and sustainable ceasefire can be reached. The US Special Envoy for Afghan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad is making attempts on behalf of the US government to fast-track the peace process and the Biden administration has now proposed a power sharing agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban. And the most important state actors that can assist and facilitate in ensuring this intra afghan power sharing agreement are Pakistan and India.

The Indian government has a great degree of influence and interest in Afghanistan as it does not want a hostile neighborhood in the region. India is also heavily been investing capital in Afghanistan as a gesture of goodwill. Today, there are a handful of capitals in the world that exercise a similar kind of influence on the Ashraf Ghani Government as New Delhi. India’s alliance with the democratic government in Afghanistan is an important aspect that Washington is well aware of. In fact, 19 years ago, India was in a similar place where at Bonn, Washington had called upon India to accept Karzai’s leadership in the region.

Pakistan on the other hand has shared a close albeit strained relationship with the Taliban. After the cold war ended with the Soviet Union removing its troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan was an important ally for the Taliban till the war on terror. Pakistan’s principled stance has always been that peace in Afghanistan cannot take its natural form till there is a dialogue between all stakeholders in the region. When the US finally decided under the Trump administration to get out of Afghanistan, Pakistan was ideally placed to mediate and assist the US and Taliban in forming an agreement which they did in the shape of the Doha agreement. Pakistan is also presently facilitating the intra Afghan dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban.

Perhaps it is here one can start connecting the dots as to why there is renewed US interest in playing a mediatory role between India and Pakistan.  As the Afghan peace process is being fast-tracked, the constructive role Pakistan and India can play in facilitating such a power share agreement is unprecedented as they both have influence over the Afghan government and Taliban respectively. Such geopolitical cooperation in the region can bring long lasting peace for Afghanistan.

It would be practically impossible for such a power-sharing agreement to work if Pakistan and India distrusted each other. And the ceasefire violations on the de facto border could have acted as a hindrance in the Afghan peace process. However, with both countries agreeing to recommit the 2003 ceasefire violation, it puts a moratorium on cross-border activities providing room for both countries to invest and facilitate in assisting peace in Afghanistan.

This new diplomatic approach of the United States in South Asia opens up a new door of opportunities for peace in the region. A power-sharing agreement in Afghanistan and both Pakistan and India recommitting to peace on the line of control serves as an ideal opportunity for the two nations to build diplomatic ties strong enough that can result in addressing the fundamental issues between the two nuclear neighbors. While the US may have played its part in freezing tense relations between Pakistan and India, it is up to the two neighbors to find threads of peace in the complex web of hostile politics in South Asia.

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Abdul Aziz

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