Pakistan planned a new phase of Afghan refugees’ repatriation as Pak – Afghan relations began to intensify, after the first wave of nearly half a million deportations putting more pressure on the Taliban – led government in Kabul. However, the situation was partly defused as Islamabad decided to extend the expiry date on Proof of Registration Cards by one year till June 2025. Pakistan deteriorating security and economic situation is believed to be the major driver behind Pakistan’s expulsion drive that started in October 2023. Pakistani security agencies have repeatedly held the Taliban regime responsible for harbouring banned TTP fighters on Afghan soil. Concerns have also been raised of direct and indirect involvement of Afghan citizens in terrorist attacks carried out inside Pakistan. Should Pakistan use repatriation of Afghan refugees as a tactic to pressurize the Taliban regime?

According to the UNHCR, Pakistan is now home to around 3.1 million Afghans. Data shows 1.35 million are registered or POR cardholders. More than 800,000 have Afghan citizenship cards while the remaining are unregistered. In the second phase, Pakistan plans to repatriate Afghan citizenship card (ACC) holders. At a recent news briefing, the spokesperson for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified the second phase of the expulsion program had not yet begun. Afghan Taliban as well as international and Pakistani human rights activists have condemned Islamabad’s plan to send Afghans back. The first repatriation drive sent a clear message of zero tolerance towards harbouring and sponsoring of banned outfits that launch attacks on Pakistani civilians and security officials. Since nothing else is working when it comes to making Taliban do as Islamabad likes, Pakistan needs to play the repatriation card wisely in a way that international backlash also stays in control.

Pakistan is not a signatory to the 1951 U.N. convention protecting refugee rights. Despite being a non-signatory to the Geneva Convention of Refugees, Pakistan has been home to Afghan refugees which at one point numbered five million, thus making Pakistan the second largest refugee hosting nation. Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan after the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops in August 2021, Pakistan has seen a spike in terror attacks primarily by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an ideological offshoot of the Afghan Taliban. TTP and groups affiliated with it have killed thousands of Pakistani security personnel in attacks concentrated in the provinces along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Blaming Pakistan for not bearing the aftermath of US’ ill managed and misplaced occupation of Afghanistan for decades does not look just.

Hosting of refugees has to be a collective problem for the world community. In the case of Afghan refugees, the responsibility was clearly not shared equitably. Invading powers, the US and erstwhile Soviet Union plunged Afghanistan in dark ages before they withdrew and almost forgot about the aftermath. Afghan people were left at the mercy of Pakistan and Iran, who opened doors to them despite having numerous internal politico economic difficulties. The most recent influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan has had adverse impacts on Pakistan’s economy. Property rents and crime rates in Pakistan’s metropolitan cities have skyrocketed; there are more shortages of food items such as wheat and sugar, and the consumption of the already limited stockpiles of gas and fuel have raised to unprecedented levels. All these economic woes can be directly and indirectly linked to Afghan refugee crisis.

Cooperation and terrorism at the same time do not make sense. Pakistan is not legally bound to look after Afghan refugees. Moreover, Pakistan’s internal economic situation also does not sync with the fact that the country is hosting millions of refugees who are a result of misadventures of western powers. As far as the rouge Taliban regime in Kabul is concerned, Islamabad should use refugees as a leverage to secure its own borders and people from terrorism. Had the POR deadline been less than one year, there would have been more pressure on the Taliban and the international community. Once all the refugees are gone, Pakistan will have less leverage over Afghanistan. So, Pakistan needs to device a strategy to keep the uncertainty around the refugee problem. This may not fit standards of morality, but nevertheless, which country on earth does not prioritize the safety and wellbeing of its own citizens.

The onus of wellbeing of Afghan refugees should be shared by both Pakistan and Afghanistan. The certainty of refugees’ stay in Pakistan needs to be seen through the lens of Pakistan’s security problems. Taliban should be compelled to act against the outlawed TTP in return for extensions in POR expiry dates. The evaluation of modern history tells us that peaceful coexistence of Pakistan and Afghanistan is virtually impossible. In this case, what makes the most sense is a relation based on ‘give and take’. Do as much as they do. Such a model of diplomacy seems to be more workable when it comes to Pakistan’s western neighbour. Taliban are desperate for a recognition nod from its neighbours and the international community. By harbouring TTP fighters, not only are they violating the Doha Agreement, but also reducing chances of putting an end to the isolation of Afghanistan.