Pakistan is all set to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in October, attention is focused on the potential impact of India-Pakistan relations on its success. The SCO is primarily a security and economic bloc with a growing international profile, faces challenges in maintaining its relevance and effectiveness, especially given the geopolitical tensions between its member states. The Indo-Pak rivalry, reminiscent of the issues faced by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), raises questions about whether the SCO could meet a similar fate. However, the SCO’s broader geopolitical landscape and distinct focus provide an opportunity to strengthen regional cooperation and ensure stability.

The SCO has gradually expanded its scope beyond its original mandate of security, extending into economic collaboration and cultural exchanges since its inception in 2001. It provides a forum for dialogue and cooperation among member states, including China, Russia, India, and Pakistan, which are major players in the region. The organization is distinct in its approach, as it seeks to foster peace and stability through multilateral engagement on issues such as terrorism, extremism, and separatism. Unlike SAARC, the SCO has been relatively successful in maintaining its coherence, even in the face of bilateral tensions among its members. The upcoming October summit, with Pakistan at the helm, could prove to be a crucial test of this capacity, especially in light of India-Pakistan relations.

India and Pakistan have shared a tumultuous relationship marked by territorial disputes, particularly over Kashmir, as well as frequent political and military skirmishes and cross-border terrorism tops the list. These bilateral issues have severely undermined the effectiveness of regional forums such as SAARC, where the standoff between the two countries has often led to deadlock and inaction. However, the SCO’s more inclusive and less rigid structure, combined with the presence of other influential powers like China and Russia offers a buffer that could prevent the India-Pakistan rivalry from derailing the forum’s objectives. Whether this dynamic can hold up during the October summit remains to be seen, but Pakistan’s invitation to India is a gesture that reflects a willingness to rise above bilateral frictions for the sake of regional stability.

The SCO has consistently positioned itself as a stabilizing force in Eurasia, with a focus on combating three isms: terrorism, extremism and radicalism while also promoting economic cooperation. The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) of SCO has been instrumental in coordinating efforts to counter threats posed by extremist groups in the region in post 9/11 era. Through SCO, member states are enabled to address cross-border security concerns without escalating conflicts. Moreover, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is closely linked with China’s strategic interests within the SCO framework, the bloc has fostered economic linkages that have the potential to elevate entire regions out of poverty, reducing the conditions that often give rise to extremism.

The SCO faces significant challenges despite its successes; the Indo-Pak rivalry is just one of several bilateral tensions that could impede its effectiveness. China’s growing economic and military influence, Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, and the US’s pivot towards the Indo-Pacific create a complex web of interests that the SCO must navigate. Furthermore, economic disparities among member states and the presence of authoritarian regimes raise questions about the bloc’s ability to promote genuine regional development and stability. If the SCO is to remain an effective organization, it will need to balance these competing interests while maintaining its focus on security and economic cooperation. The upcoming summit in Pakistan will be a litmus test of the its resilience.

The SCO has played an important role in fostering regional stability, but its future effectiveness depends on how it manages internal divisions, particularly the India-Pakistan rivalry. While the forum is distinct from SAARC in its structure and scope having a composite leadership of two major powers, its ability to navigate geopolitical tensions will determine whether it remains a robust platform for cooperation or succumbs to the same fate as SAARC. The October summit is a pivotal moment for the SCO, offering a chance to reaffirm its commitment to peace and prosperity in a region that remains at the crossroads of conflict and cooperation.

The SCO must go beyond its traditional security-oriented focus and strengthen its role in economic integration, infrastructure development, and people-to-people exchanges. Greater emphasis on projects that enhance connectivity, such as transport corridors and digital infrastructure, could bring tangible benefits to member states, fostering goodwill and reducing tensions. Additionally, the SCO should look to deepen its engagement with observer states and dialogue partners to expand its influence and encourage inclusive growth. The October summit provides an opportunity for Pakistan to champion these initiatives, positioning the SCO as a cornerstone of regional stability and cooperation in an increasingly fragmented world.