Pakistan-US oil deal can be a turning point in the context of Pak-U.S bilateral relationship. It might seem favorable at first, but Pakistan needs to consider long-term motives behind it. Historically, Pakistan and US relation has been limited to the aid and military alliances but this time it’s more rooted in energy and trade. This oil deal is apparently a new approach towards economic ties between both states. It has reset Pakistan-US diplomacy and showing a shift of interests. The deal considers oil exploration and extraction on the surface but there might be some other motives attached to it.  There is still room left to think is it really a turning point or the strategic re-entrance by US while Pakistan stuck to subordinate role?

It is too early to consider Pakistan-US oil deal as a turning point when the details of the agreement remain unclear. There is only one thing we are sure about is that US is going to explore and extract Pakistan’s oil reserves. From cold war to 9/11 counterterrorism coordination, it has been always a strategic convenience not the shared vision. This time both states have done economic collab but without knowing terms of agreement, volumes and timelines we don’t know for whom exactly it is going to be a turning point. America is gaining access to Pakistan’s oil rich areas, possibly Baluchistan. The province is already subject to insurgency and political instability. Given the vast coal and gas reserves in Baluchistan and now possibly the oil reserves, history might repeat itself when the gain from resources is not invested in local development. This might lead to extreme conflicts causing internal unrest and inequality.

U.S will not only be gaining oil but also regional influence. We need to reassess that why US wants to have oil deal with Pakistan and more importantly why now. The answer lies in the timeline. US has lost its autonomy in Afghanistan and has withdrawn. This has significantly reduced American influence in South Asia. Meanwhile, China has been moving with fast pace and has already deepened its influence through the CPEC. Pakistan is ranked 50^th among the oil rich states. It will not be surprising if America wants to re-enter into region through Pakistan’s energy sector. Also, Baluchistan’s strategic position will allow US to monitor Iran given the proximity. America by regaining its presence in South Asia will not only be able to have regional influence but will also be competing China and Russia. In diplomatic terms, it’s not only the oil deal but a move to form alliance.

Apparently, Pakistan can benefit from this deal significantly. It has been facing energy shortages which have given rise to inflation. This deal can improve Pakistan’s economic stability only if it is framed wisely. It will also reduce its dependency on massive oil imports. Pakistan’s energy import has created an imbalance in its trade so, domestic exploration might lead the way to less foreign dependency for its energy sector. This deal can open a door to new employment opportunities and also foreign direct investments from US allies. There can be progress in development of infrastructure in underdeveloped regions. The deal will lead to investment in roads, power supply and other infrastructure. These developments outlast the projects that initiated these. If the agreement is negotiated on fair terms and technology transfer, then this deal will serve as a turning point in Pakistan-US relations.

However, without solid framing and clear terms and volumes, the deal can become more of an extractive nature rather than empowering one. Pakistan might be exchanging long-term control and revenue for short term inflows. In that case, then it might not be a turning point but deal that where the drawbacks outweigh the benefits. Moreover, the lack of public consultation, especially from Baluchistan, raises concerns. Local communities haven’t been informed. This is more concerning that if there is no share for them in revenue, infrastructure and employment they will be left empty handed while the rest profits from their resource wealth. Without considerable agreement Pakistan might end up as a platform for US to fulfill its strategic goals. Pakistan then will only be gaining limited economic development for its people.

The oil deal between Pakistan and US can be a turning point if it serves the interests of both state parties. This depends less on the signing and more on what’s actually being signed on and what follows that. This deal can redefine Pakistan-US relations. Pakistan has been facing chronic energy shortage, and this economic partnership can promote development of energy sector. Moreover, we will be able to observe progress in national prosperity and development if it serves our national interests. This depends on how the agreement is framed and for whose benefit it is serving and how much of it is shared. There is need for more to be revealed about it and demand for transparency by policymakers. Right now, it might be too early to label this deal as a turning point of Pakistan-US diplomatic relations.