President Donald Trump’s second term may see a cooperation amongst Pak-U.S. against terrorism, subject to the two states finding grounds of commonality concerning prominent terrorist targets. IS-KP (Islamic state Khorasan Province) is a rising threat for both U.S. and Pakistan. TTP (Tehreek e Taliban) is also amongst the biggest terrorist threats along with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Washington and Islamabad view different proscribed organisations as their respective enemies hence chances of cooperation regarding counterterrorism seem hindered if not nullified.

In the month of February, Pakistan captured Sharifullah and handed him over to the U.S. He is an ISKP militant and is believed to be the mastermind of 2021 Kabul airport bombing which killed 170 Afghan nationals and 13 U.S. marine corps. Donald Trump thanked Pakistan in his first address to Congress. Following this, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz shared words of appreciation regarding Pakistan’s efforts against terrorism, on a phone call to Ishaq Dar who is the country’s Foreign Minister. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued a statement emphasising that counterterrorism is a subject of common interest for both Pakistan and U.S.

Pakistan and the United States of America do share common ground in their war against different militant groups. Firstly, U.S. designates ISKP, BLA and TTP as terrorist organisations. Currently, Pakistan’s fight on counterterrorism is against TTP and BLA, while U.S. sees ISKP as the most prominent organisation working against it. ISKP was formed in 2015, and it has some former TTP militants too. Pak-U.S. mutual operation which resulted in the capture of this ISKP commander is the first high profile collaboration in the recent years with respect to counterterrorism.

Pakistan has previously proved as a reliant ally for the U.S. in its war on terror. It supported mujahideen against Soviet Union while the USSR was expanding into Afghanistan. This proved pivotal in driving out the Soviet Russians, who were the major U.S. rivals of the time. Later in the early 2000s, when U.S. troops entered Afghanistan to counter the Taliban, Pakistan yet again joined hands with America on several occasions. It assisted U.S. in capturing many Al Qaeda leaders including Abu Zubaydah and Sharib Ahmad. Pakistan also provided critical supply routes to NATO. The country resultantly received U.S. aid which ramped up its military machinery. The aid influx almost stopped after U.S. withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. However, recently, America has pledged to release about $400 million towards maintenance of Pakistan’s F-16 fighter fleet.

ISKP’s Saifullah arrest rekindled hopes of joint Pak-U.S. counterterrorism efforts, however these maybe tarnished by the propaganda that has started rolling in. In order to downplay this arrest, Al-Mirsaad, a social media group aligned with TTP, shared content online which terms Saifullah as a low-level militant. Afghan Taliban social media platforms seem to be on a similar page as TTP, claiming that ISKP maintains hideouts within Pakistan. Others have commented that this commander was arrested by the Pakistani military long ago and has only been produced before the U.S. just now. Pakistan has called out on all this as misinformation and propaganda. It also commented on Afghan Taliban’s lack of effort to tackle TTP.

Several factors do point to a lesser probability of joint counterterrorism operations. U.S. focus on Pakistan has been receding ever since it left Kabul in 2021. It no longer views Pakistan as a strategic ally, it once was. President Trump has also cut-off aid to Pakistan in non-military sectors. This may strain Pak-U.S. relations to some extent. Further many members of Mr President’s office are critics of Pakistan. Donald Trump himself, talked about deceit when referring to Pakistan during his first tenure. The biggest factor which can hamper any joint commitments against terrorists is a conflict of interests. U.S. major terrorist rival of the current times is ISKP. Pakistan faces major threats from TTP and BLA rather than ISKP.

A difference of priorities in the fight on terror questions the validity of any long-term counterterrorism cooperation. U.S. seeks to eliminate the rising ISKP influence while Afghan Taliban have called out Pakistan for providing meeting locations, if not shelter to ISKP, a claim Pakistan denies. Such allegations could be a blow against cordial Pak-U.S. relations which in turn will diminish slight possibilities of mutual anti-terror efforts. Pakistan on the contrary is asking for immediate U.S. efforts against TTP and BLA. The country alleges that Afghan Taliban are providing safe havens to TTP which cross the porous border and conduct terror activities within Pakistan. BLA hijacked a train in Quetta carrying at least 400 people on March 11. This has resulted in the killing of more than 21 hostages so far and the incident has also sparked a new phase of terror threats within the country. Pakistan expects U.S. and Afghan Taliban cooperation regarding these terrorist elements operating to dismantle this nation. U.S. on the other hand is on the outlook to eradicate all elements to expanding ISKP influence which has now diffused outside of Afghanistan.

Pakistan and U.S. are expected to cooperate in counterterrorism under Trump 2.0. This cooperation is expected only, if the two states find a middle ground regarding prioritisation of essential terrorist targets. This is because unlike the post 9/11 scenario, Pakistan and America face threats from different terrorist groups now. Joint effort in this regard is only possible if both work together, take the Afghan Taliban on board and then target these proscribed organisations. This can be done if U.S. helps Pakistan counter BLA and TTP, while Pakistan extends its full support against ISKP.