TTP (The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan), a prominent Islamist insurgent group operating in Pakistan, is a major bone of contention between Islamabad and Kabul. When the relationships are beginning to improve, TTP’s activities cause some serious problems. The group has carried out numerous attacks on both Afghan and Pakistani soil, targeting civilians, security forces, and infrastructure. These attacks have caused significant casualties and created an atmosphere of fear and distrust, making it difficult for meaningful dialogue to take place.

In the past, Pakistan’s military and administration have undertaken effective measures to combat terrorism and extremism in the country. Counterinsurgency operations carried out by the Pakistani military, including Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 and its urban follow-up Operation Radd-ul-Fasad in 2017, severely undermined the TTP’s organizational structure and operational capabilities. In the years that followed, there were fewer TTP assaults as a result of these operations, improved intelligence collaboration, and border management with Afghanistan.

A cease-fire was agreed upon by the authorities during PM Imran Khan’s tenure, but it was abandoned in November after TTP claimed that Pakistani armed forces had attacked its members. Under COAS Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan alternated between negotiations and a cease-fire with the TTP with limited military activity. However, things are a little more challenging for his successor especially in dealing with casualties on Pakistan’s side. The army chief’s most recent remarks suggest that Pakistan has no interest in holding discussions with the TTP.  This according to him would step up pressure on the Afghan Taliban to take action against the terrorist safe havens.

The relative period of calm since the completion of military operations is long over since the group has recently posed a renewed security threat in the region. According to reports, TTP and other insurgent organizations in Pakistan killed nearly 400 people, including security forces, in the first half of this year. Militant attacks and battles with the military have claimed the lives of more than 100 officers and soldiers since the beginning of 2023. In January 2023, a top member of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was assassinated by TTP militants which was a major setback for the agency.

There was a prospect of better Pak-Afghan relationship after the Taliban takeover but the results have been quite opposite. There is a changing relationship between the two nations ever since the fall of Kabul. The already fragile Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship is now at greater risk due to the TTP’s revival. The group’s actions have often undermined any progress made in negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. This has added to the strain in relations between the two countries, as Pakistan is seen as a key player in the peace process.

The Doha peace deal, signed in February 2020 between the United States and the Taliban, has had a significant impact on shaping Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. The agreement, which outlined the departure of foreign troops and granted the Afghan government the authority to engage in negotiations with the Taliban, initially raised hopes for stability in Afghanistan. But soon there were questions about the Taliban’s capacity to uphold Doha agreement’s provisions, as well as Pakistan’s hold over the organization. Its sincerity has been questioned, according to critics, because the Taliban have not fully complied with the agreement’s conditions.

Given its longstanding ties to the Taliban, Pakistan played a vital role in assisting these negotiations. Maintaining peace and stability in its neighbouring nation is in the best interests of Islamabad. Though Pakistan benefits most from a Taliban-led government in Kabul, it is important to remember that regional powers like Russia, China, and Qatar also helped bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. As a matter of fact, the Taliban are currently indicating that they might be less receptive to receiving orders from Pakistan.

The TTP’s sanctuary in Pakistan has also raised eyebrows about potential support or backing of the group from elements within the Pakistani establishment. Some elements within the nation’s intelligence institutions are alleged to have helped the TTP, either directly or indirectly. These suspicions have further complicated efforts to establish trust and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as with other regional actors involved in counterterrorism efforts.

In addition, Pakistan’s dedication to battling terrorism has come under scrutiny due to the TTP’s ability to find refuge there. The TTP has continued to operate from within Pakistan’s borders despite international pressure, raising doubts about the government’s intent or capacity to crack down on the group. This has strained ties not only between Pakistan and Afghanistan but also with other nations impacted by the TTP’s activities. One such case is India, which routinely accuses Pakistan of aiding these jihadists.

Pakistan’s damaged reputation on the global stage has had far-reaching consequences. Pakistan’s credibility as a partner in the fight against terrorism is seriously questioned when it cannot effectively tackle the militant groups operating within its own territory. The international community views Pakistan as a breeding ground for terrorism due to its failure to effectively combat the TTP menace. It has become increasingly challenging for the country to attract foreign investment, forge beneficial trade agreements, and establish fruitful diplomatic relations with other nations.

The issue of extremism in Pakistan significantly impacts the already complex relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Adhering to a policy design that emphasizes intelligence sharing and diplomatic engagement, is essential in mitigating this challenge. Promoting trust, open dialogue, and joint efforts will not only neutralize the TTP threat but also lay the foundation for strengthened bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Ultimately, effectively addressing the TTP sanctuary issue is crucial for regional stability and long-term peace and security in the area.