Pakistan is about to witness the spillover from the conflict in Afghanistan, as Taliban’s power and jurisdiction is rapidly inching closer to Pakistan’s borders. On July 01, 2021 senior Pakistani military and intelligence officials in a briefing to the Parliament stressed upon the need to shore up their border defenses in order to ensure that
Pakistan is about to witness the spillover from the conflict in Afghanistan, as Taliban’s power and jurisdiction is rapidly inching closer to Pakistan’s borders. On July 01, 2021 senior Pakistani military and intelligence officials in a briefing to the Parliament stressed upon the need to shore up their border defenses in order to ensure that the increased violence in Afghanistan does not carry into Pakistan.
Pakistan is said to have completed fencing 90% of its 1600-mile-long border with Afghanistan and established security posts. According to Afghanistan Analyst Network, “there are 235 crossing points along the border, which translates into almost one crossing point per 10 kilometers.” Out of the 235 border crossings only 20 are used more frequently and only two of them i.e. Torkham and Chaman are fully equipped with border controls. With the escalating wave of violence in Afghanistan, Pakistan has closed down it borders with Afghanistan to shield itself from any spillover, with only transit trade being allowed to continue between the borders. This article looks at Pakistan’s border security and management policy in light of Taliban’s growing power in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country.
If the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates to the extent of a civil war breaking out in the country, Pakistan is looking at not only regional instability, but increased violence in Pakistan. Pakistan which already hosts around 3 million Afghan refugees, is looking at millions more to arrive at its borders seeking shelter from the violence in Afghanistan.
Moreover, it is anticipated that the inflow of refugees is going to undermine Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. It is feared that not only armed Afghan Army personnel will garb themselves as refugees to enter Pakistan, but also militants. This notion has been further accentuated by the attack led by Taliban near the Pakistan border at the Afghan national Army in early July, who in turn abandoned their posts and crossed over into Pakistan’s territory.
There is a major policy shift in Pakistan concerning the outlook on Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP). Initially, Pakistan viewed Afghan Taliban’s cause as legitimate while the TTP was recognised as a proscribed terrorist organisation. However, in light of the recent events, Pakistan has acknowledged that both the TTP and Afghan Taliban hold on to the same ideology, and hence both groups are a threat to the national security of Pakistan.
Accordingly, on July 24, Pakistan announced the deployment of regular troops at forward positions along the Afghan border. In general, borders are usually manned by the Frontier Constabulary (FC), Levies Force, Rangers and other militias working under the Ministry of Interior. However, theses paramilitary forces are deployed at the borders to deal with conventional issues such as illegal border crossing, smuggling etc.
Due to the volatile situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan has replaced the paramilitary forces with regular troops to deal with containing the influx of not only refugees, but also armed army personnel and militants, and to prevent escalation of conflict from Afghanistan to Pakistan.
In addition to this Pakistan has also announced policy change pertaining to refugees. Due to the fighting in Afghanistan and the influx of refugees, Pakistan has announced that it will no longer be accepting any more refugees from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Minister of Interior Affairs, Sheikh Rasheed revealed that Pakistan will follow the ‘Iran Model’ with respect to refugees. The ‘Iran Model’ refers to the establishment of refugee camps along the international border where the refugees will be accommodated. This means that the refugees are not permitted to enter cities and their movement is solely restricted to the area where the camps are set up.
It is noted that those that do cross the border into Pakistan are given safe passage into the country, and are later handed over to the Afghan Government authorities after due process has been observed. On July 26, Pakistan gave safe passage to 46 Afghan National Army and Border Police personnel in Chitral when they were unable to maintain their military posts along the Pak-Afghan International Border due to escalation in fighting with Taliban. Accordingly, Pakistan Army contacted Afghan officials for further information and necessary formalities. Once the due process is completed, the soldiers will be returned to Afghanistan.
The deteriorating situation in Afghanistan not only carries security implications for Pakistan, but also aggravates the existing economic and political challenges in Pakistan. In early July, Pakistan suspended the Afghan Transit Trade as Taliban’s power continue to grow in the Afghanistan. However, the same has been resumed since July 27, 2021 due to pressure from traders. The traders have requested the governments of both countries to set aside their political differences in an effort to encourage bilateral and transit trade between them. Accordingly, it has been announced that the border crossings will remain open six days a week to allow for smooth operation of trade between the two countries.
The situation in Afghanistan is fraught with uncertainty. The state of affairs in Afghanistan can improve or aggravate even further. At this stage, Pakistan can merely observe the unfolding of events in Afghanistan. However, it is imperative that Pakistan prepares itself for all possible outcomes and are ready to take appropriate actions in case the violence spillovers on to Pakistani soil from Afghanistan.
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