National Integration at Risk – A Politically Polarised Pakistan

In Blog, National Security
October 31, 2022
Asfand Yar Khan
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The inability of the political elite to develop a political consensus on any issue is undermining the national integration of Pakistan. National character, morale, and integration are key elements of national power. However, the current political mix in Pakistan is very different from the 1990s. The factor that plays a decisive role in the political

The inability of the political elite to develop a political consensus on any issue is undermining the national integration of Pakistan. National character, morale, and integration are key elements of national power. However, the current political mix in Pakistan is very different from the 1990s. The factor that plays a decisive role in the political polarisation of Pakistan today is the ever-inflating ‘youth bulge’. The old-fashioned provincialism and sub-nationalist identities have subsided, only to be replaced by powerful emotions and a young ‘rush of blood’. Never were political gatherings as inclusive and charged as they are nowadays. Another factor is the easy flow of information due to vibrant mass media and social networking platforms. It will not be wrong to assume that shifting demographic realities and the ‘internet age’ have altered the political dynamics of Pakistan.

The contemporary technological revolution makes the flow of information so easy that it reaches everywhere and everyone. In the global political arenas, with such a vast and fast flow of information, there has been a notable increase in the importance of political narratives. Even the world’s most established democracies have been challenged, and Pakistan is no exception. Since most of the target audience is politically unaware, therefore, narratives revolve more around popular slogans that attract their attention and less around things that really matter for the welfare of state institutions and the population at large. As seen in the domestic politics of India and the US in recent years, political narratives are more or less hardline and right-leaning, threatening their core pillars of democracy and, most importantly, their national integration.

Pakistan, which is still an ‘emerging’ democracy, seems to be catching up with global trends at a swift pace. Unlike India, religious sentiments do not play a decisive role in Pakistan’s politics. Some religious, political factions may be able to amass gigantic political rallies but have negligible electoral power. Political narratives during the major part of civilian rule in Pakistan revolved around provincialism and ethnic identities. However, this seems to have changed now. The advent of a third political force, namely Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI), led by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan in the erstwhile two-party system, brought both favourable and adverse connotations to Pakistan’s political system. PTI’s political narrative, coupled with Imran’s charisma, has managed to attract a major chunk of the youth population. This has charged the political atmosphere more than ever.

No democracy is complete without the involvement of young people. However, it is also true that ‘populist’ sloganeering mislead youth, especially when rising inflation and unemployment. Indian PM Narendra Modi, with his populist slogans, managed to pull off successive general election victories, but at the cost of national integration. Minorities, lower castes, and ‘enlightened’ Hindus feel left out in modern-day India. Modi’s erratic leadership style has created a league of blind followers, often referred to as ‘Modi Bhakts’, who would label others ‘anti-national’ and resort to violence and abuse to silence critics. Contrary to this, Pakistan does not seem to be divided along religious lines as far as current national politics is concerned. Still, scores of blind followers have been created, further jeopardising Pakistan’s already bleak national integration.

The national politics of the US has also become a victim of populism. Not only did the advent of Donald Trump change the outlook of US’ Republican Party, but also of the US democracy in its entirety. Who could have imagined that scores of violent protesters would storm the iconic Capitol Hill? Populists do have this ability to incite their followers to resort to violence and other illegitimate means in the name of protecting their country. In Pakistan’s case, if Imran Khan decides to resort to confrontation as he did in 2014 when PTI workers stormed Pakistan Television (PTV) and other state buildings in the ‘red zone’ area of the Capital, then his workers will not back out. The current state of highly polarized politics may not divide people along ethno-lingual lines, but it surely is splitting up masses between political parties.

Any nation is tested in times of natural disaster. Pakistan’s response to the 2005 earthquake displayed immense unity and national integration. On the contrary, the nation’s response to the recent floods that hit all four provinces of Pakistan did not exhibit a similar kind of energy. Since the first day, political parties have been doing ‘point scores’ to achieve some kind of political mileage ahead of the elections. There is more news about the ongoing political rivalry between PTI and the ruling coalition than relief efforts and damages caused by floods. This is evidence of the declining national integration in the country. Pakistan seems to be divided into two rival camps at the moment, and the rivalry is so deep that even a national catastrophe like the recent floods could not help the nation find its right course of action. Whatever the outcome of this political fiasco may be, it seems that the whole country will remain divided until the next general elections, at least.

The history of politics teaches that national consensus can only be built if there is political consensus. The Pakistani Nation has shown resilience during various crises in the last 75 years. The national integration during the Indo-Pak War of 1965, the 2005 earthquake, and more recently, the post-Pulwama military debacle was exemplary. Under the current circumstances, any political consensus on any issue seems unlikely. Bringing the optimism into play, the next general elections are likely to bring some sort of political stability to the country, provided the elections are held within time with such transparency that all political parties accept the results wholeheartedly. It is high time for the political elite to show maturity and set high standards of morality in Pakistan’s politics. As Abraham Lincoln stated, “a house divided against itself cannot stand”.

Pakistan has faced natural calamities one after the other since the start of the 21^st century. The earthquake in 2005, followed by the floods of 2010 and 2014, were all high-degree natural disasters Pakistan faced. The devastating floods of 2022 have caused havoc and threatened Pakistan’s national security. National security does not only include Pakistan’s borders but also encompasses other aspects, such as climate, economic, food, and human security. How did the 2022 Floods challenge the national security of Pakistan?

One of the most important components of any country is its climate security. According to the Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Climate security represents the physical, economic, or societal impacts associated with climate change that substantially alter political stability, human security, or national security infrastructure. The growing climate crisis creates geopolitical and socioeconomic stressors like displacement, economic stagnation, impacts on infrastructure, and social unrest. According to the Global Risk Index Report 2021 by German Watch, Pakistan is the eighth most vulnerable country to climate change.

The severe climate change causes the earth’s temperatures to rise. This phenomenon is referred to as global warming. These rising temperatures cause the melting of glaciers. There are nearly 54,000 glaciers in the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu-Kush Mountain ranges collectively, according to International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Out of these 54,000 glaciers, more than 7000 exist in Pakistan. So, when these glaciers melt, rivers get flooded and cause a natural disaster. The recent floods of 2022 submerged one-third of Pakistan in water. Also, due to climate change, the river water is reduced, and water management is adversely affected. So, the climate security of Pakistan is at elevated risk and threatens its national security.

Another notable element related to a country’s national security is its economic security. There always occur property losses in Pakistan due to natural calamities, and the government must rebuild the infrastructure, which is a huge economic burden. The earthquake that struck AJK and eastern NWFP on the morning of October 8, 2005, left widespread destruction, killing at least 80,000 people, severely injuring another 38,000, and leaving more than 3 million people without shelter, according to a report by Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI). It caused massive economic loss too. The total cost associated with the earthquake was estimated at $5.2 billion, according to a report by Asian Development Bank and World Bank.

The floods of 2010 that hit the KPK, Sindh, lower Punjab, and Balochistan regions also caused massive economic losses. According to the Finance division of the Government of Pakistan, the total reconstruction cost of the 2010 floods was Rs. 578 billion, and the estimated cost of the recovery effort of the 2014 floods was $439.7 million. So, it is evident that the economy is severely affected every time a natural calamity hits Pakistan. Any damage to the economic security weakens the national security of Pakistan. Obviously, the 2022 Super Floods will also affect the economy badly, and threaten national security.

Floods have also threatened the food security of Pakistan. According to USAID, food security means having, at all times, both physical and economic access to sufficient food to meet dietary needs for a productive and healthy life. Due to recent floods, many people have lost their crops and livestock and are facing food insecurity. The loss of rice production of 1,892,172 metric tons, the loss of cotton production of 3,106,709 bales, and the loss of sugarcane production of 10,486,793 occurred in Sindh alone, according to a report by the ICIMOD on the assessment of crop losses in Sindh using satellite data.

Another crucial factor that occurs due to a natural calamity and threatens national security is human insecurity. Natural disasters cause human insecurity in diverse ways. The worst floods recorded in Pakistan before the super floods of 2022 were the ones that occurred in 2010. They raised many new human security challenges for Pakistan. Waterborne diseases, such as diarrhea coupled with respiratory infections, caused havoc among the affectees. Moreover, drinking water was also declared unfit for use. Women are massively affected when floods occur as their menstrual hygiene is always compromised. People mostly do not focus on this matter because other issues like food and water insecurities are considered of prime importance.

The national security of a country depends on climate security, economic security, food security, and human security. If either of them is challenged, then national security is threatened. A developing country like Pakistan cannot afford its national security to be compromised. Pakistan is facing almost all concerns regarding national security due to the 2022 floods. To cope with these challenges, proper mechanisms should be made. Pakistan should either make mechanisms for climate change adaptation or spread awareness regarding climate change and its detrimental consequences. Alongside this, proper steps must be taken to preserve human security, including factors affecting food and water security.