Israel’s unprecedented airstrikes on the Gaza Strip and its anticipated large-scale ground invasion are set to escalate the war, shifting the regional security dynamics drastically. Since the conflict began on October 7, Israel has responded to Hamas’s surprise incursion into Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories with a substantial and disproportionate use of force. Tragically, nearly 10,000 Palestinians including 3,500 children, have been killed in the wake of Israel’s brutal aerial offensive in Gaza, increasing fears of a potential genocide. At the regional level, the collective punishment of Palestinians has evoked a spectrum of reactions from various states and non-state actors. Arab states have been hesitant to escalate the conflict in reaction to Israeli aggression, largely due to extensive U.S. support of Israeli actions. Iran and Iranian-sponsored militant groups, notably Hezbollah, have issued warnings about the potential for further escalation, even the prospect of joining the war. Furthermore, with Yemen officially declaring war against Israel, the likelihood of more states joining to curtail Israeli aggression is a high possibility.

Israel’s extensive offensive in Gaza suggests an aim to establish full control over the Gaza Strip and eradicate Hamas entirely. In the aftermath of the Lebanon War of 2006, Hamas gained significant control of the Gaza Strip gathering the support of the local population against the occupation forces. Since then, Hamas has launched several rocket attacks on Israel in response to Israel’s aerial bombardment of Gaza. Experts suggest that if Israel succeeds in eliminating Hamas entirely, it would reshape the current regional order. Iran and Hezbollah would never want Israel to shift its focus on other neighborhood threats with the eradication of Hamas. Moreover, Israel’s intentions to potentially relocate Gaza Strip inhabitants to Egypt underscore the existential nature of the ongoing conflict. The complete elimination of Hamas would signify the end of Palestinian resistance against Israel, significantly reshaping regional dynamics in Israel’s favor.

The potential involvement of Hezbollah in the conflict has the potential to significantly shape the course of the war, escalating tensions across the region. Notably, Hezbollah stands as the only Arab force in history to have successfully defeated Israel in battle, forcing Israel to end its occupation of Southern Lebanon in 2000 and dealing a significant blow to its military. Since the war’s commencement, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in intense border clashes, resulting in casualties among Israeli soldiers. Historically, Sunni states have opposed Hezbollah due to its support for Syrian President Assad. However, experts speculate that increased support for Hezbollah among Sunni Muslims could occur if its conflict with Israel intensifies. The US has repeatedly said that it would consider Hezbollah’s involvement as an attack on Israel by Iran. Thus, the ongoing tension at the borders could potentially ignite a broader and more widespread conflict in the region.

The Israel-Palestine conflict poses a significant risk to U.S. interests and assets in the region. The United States maintains a substantial military presence in the Middle East, with thousands of troops stationed at various bases hosted by Arab countries. In response to its support for Israel during the war, the U.S. has reinforced these bases with additional troops to deter potential adversaries from targeting Israel. Additionally, the deployment of an aircraft carrier group in the Middle East serves as a display of power to discourage Iranian involvement in the war. However, the heightened U.S. military presence to support Israel has made American bases throughout the region vulnerable. Various Iraqi and Yemeni groups have initiated attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. These assaults on U.S. assets may exert pressure on the U.S. to either advocate for a ceasefire in the conflict or consider the withdrawal of its assets from the region. Nevertheless, the latter option seems unlikely.

Western opposition to a ceasefire in Gaza and support for Israeli aggression risk emboldening Israel to disregard the laws of war. Since the war’s commencement, Israel has imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip, preventing humanitarian aid from reaching the people in Gaza. Simultaneously, it has targeted hospitals, refugee camps, and bakeries, violating International Humanitarian Law (IHL). Furthermore, disproportionate attacks on civilians constitute war crimes under IHL. The United Nations has issued a warning, stating that Gaza is on the brink of collapse due to severe shortages of food, fuel, and medical supplies. In the aftermath of the conflict, there is a significant likelihood of Israel facing international legal action for the war crimes committed in Gaza. However, the support of the United States and Western nations for Israel may impede any such legal proceedings, reflecting their influence over international institutions.

The United Nations has issued a stark warning of the grave risk of genocide facing the Palestinian population. If Israel proceeds with its full-scale invasion plan in the Gaza Strip, it becomes highly probable that more regional actors will become involved in the conflict against Israel. Up to this point, the U.S. and its allies have consistently vetoed ceasefire proposals in Gaza, favoring Israel’s stance, which indicates a potential further escalation of the conflict. Diplomatic efforts led by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are underway to prevent further escalation, but it ultimately hinges on Israel whether the conflict will continue to intensify and potentially spill over into the wider region. The involvement of Hezbollah in the war could be a pivotal moment in the ongoing dynamics of the Middle East conflict. It’s important to acknowledge the role of Iran and its proxies in targeting U.S. assets in the region, as any U.S. withdrawal would open the door to greater influence from Russia and China. Consequently, the participation of global powers in the conflict has the potential to further complicate the current situation.