Elections in Pakistan are scheduled to be held on February 8. Free and fair elections should serve as a beacon of hope for political stability, paving the way for improving the investment climate and stimulating economic recovery. The transformative potential of democratic government is enormous. Conversely, flawed elections undermine democratic governance and prospects for economic prosperity. The repercussions of electoral malpractice reverberate throughout society, weakening electoral institutions and stifling public participation, bringing the nation closer to the precipice with limited prospects for economic transformation.

The Supreme Court’s decision to reject the use of the ‘bat’ symbol of Imran Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on January 13, has received considerable criticism. There is also a clear constitutional violation this time. Article 51 of the 1973 Constitution stipulates that the elections must be held within 90 days of the dissolution of the National Assembly, which occurred in early August 2023. An excuse for the delay was provided by the mandatory requirement to demarcate electoral district boundaries. The election schedule was finally notified in December 2023, with the Chief Justice strictly ordering the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Sikandar Sultan Raja, to seek the approval of President Arif Alvi (his five-year term ends in August 2023).

There was a minor disturbance on 5 January 2024 when the Senate passed a resolution to postpone the elections, on the basis of difficult weather conditions and unfavorable law and order conditions prevailing in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. It was introduced in a sparsely attended session by Independently elected Senator Dilawar Hussain, and passed by just 12 votes to two.  Its legal effect remained in doubt as the Senate, a quarter of its total membership of 104, had a quorum of 104 members.  26, was absent.

The number of registered voters is 128.5 million, out of a total population of 241.5 million. Sixty seats are reserved for women and 10 seats for non-Muslims. It is awarded to political parties on the basis of proportional representation. The magic numbers for forming a government are 134 and 169 after adding the reserved seats. Of the 266 general seats, Punjab has 141, Sindh 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 45, Balochistan 16 and Federal Capital Territory Islamabad 3 seats. Punjab has more seats than the other three provinces combined. The party that controls Punjab controls Pakistan. This is a permanent feature of political life in Pakistan.

In his book Political Order and Political Decay, Francis Fukuyama studies two forms of political decay: the dissolution of institutions and the decline of political accountability. The former refers to the inability of institutions to adapt to changing circumstances, while the latter refers to the erosion of mechanisms that hold leaders accountable to the general population. Electoral malpractice exacerbates both forms of political decay. When the ruling elite manipulates electoral processes to maintain their grip on power, it undermines the legitimacy of democratic institutions. Fukuyama argues that these elites often form what he calls “patrimonial states,” where power is concentrated in the hands of a few ruling families or networks.  In such systems, electoral malpractices serve as a tool to perpetuate the status quo, entrench vested interests, and impede meaningful institutional reform.

Flawed elections may succeed in creating a democracy that facilitates access to loans from international financial institutions, but they are unlikely to inspire public or investor confidence.  The legitimacy of governing institutions is likely to be undermined, further eroding public confidence in the system. They are also unlikely to suppress dissent. As the safety valves that provide peaceful mechanisms for political expression and change are removed, social injustices worsen, creating fertile ground for political unrest and conflict.

There will be three main political parties in the fray. The PML-N has done well in the past in its stronghold of Punjab, where it has been helped by bureaucracy and birdari (sub-caste) affiliations. Although these matters remain of great importance, three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif has appeared somewhat lethargic since his return from his almost four-year exile in the UK, preoccupied mainly with the injustices he has suffered in the past through and through the courts, Insinuation and the military establishment. His dilemma was to look for a counter-narrative to compensate for Imran Khan’s continued popularity. Nawaz must also decide who will inherit his mantle: his charismatic daughter Maryam or dutiful brother Shehbaz Sharif, who remains more acceptable to the establishment.

The PPP retains its main political base in Sindh, where it relies on support from rural landowners. It has less control in the urban areas of Karachi and Hyderabad. After his creditable performance as Foreign Minister in the last coalition, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari tried hard to improve his acceptance by the establishment as a young, balanced and articulate leader. By choosing to contest the elections from Lahore, he also tried to wrest away the then Punjab vote bank. His father, Asif Zardari, is a more experienced and seasoned political leader. These two played good cop and bad cop and sometimes criticized former allies. The latter tried hard to garner support from the various feudal lords of Baluchistan and southern Punjab, with the possibility of becoming president again.

Imran has made significant inroads in Punjab since he was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April. In the year 2022 by promoting narratives such as ‘foreign conspiracy’, ‘just martyrdom’ and ‘abandonment by the military establishment’.  In the year. After the Punjab by-elections in 2022, it looked invincible. In a series of public meetings, senior army officers were insulted by name. Although later revealed to be false, this narrative was fueled by an army of reportable young social media trolls who are now a headache for security sensors!

Some Pakistani analysts try to explain this phenomenon as a political phenomenon, especially faced by the unemployed youth in urban areas, as the real power in Pakistan still lies with the Establishment and not with elected politicians or parliament. They see their only salvation in Imran’s revival. Other smaller parties like Maulana Fazlur Rehman and the Baluchistan Awami Party (BAP) have pockets of strength in southern KP and northern Baluchistan. The Istehkam e Pakistan Party (IPP), a faction of the old PTI with sugar baron Jehangir Tareen as its leader, may win a few seats in Punjab, just like Pervez Khattak’s PTI (Members of Parliament) in KP. There is also the Karachi factor. This time, out of Karachi’s 21 seats, the Muhajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) is seeking 14-15 seats to replace the PTI, which previously held power in Greater Karachi.  Factions led by Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, Farooq Sattar and Mustafa Kamal’s Pakistan Sarzameen Party (PSP) were brought together by the army’s not-so-gentle instigation.  However, this ‘alliance’ has yet to be ‘blessed’ by the exiled MQM ‘Imam’ Altaf Hussain from London.  Jamaat-e-Islami (JE) may also try to build on its strong showing in local elections to win back some traditionally held seats.

The feudal lords elected from southern Punjab usually ‘gone with the wind’. However, with so many independents now in the fray, the bet can be on a “hung” parliament or the emergence of a weak alternative led by the PML(N). Case studies from around the world abound. In Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s regime has held on to power through what is widely seen as an engineered electoral process.  Although it ostensibly succeeded in establishing political stability after the Arab Spring, as tens of billions of dollars were injected into the economy by friendly countries and multilateral financial institutions, Egypt remains mired in economic crises, declining investment in public goods, and political repression.  Venezuela provides another shocking example of this phenomenon, with its economy descending into chaos, exacerbated by rigged elections and authoritarian rule.  The erosion of democratic norms has fueled hyperinflation, scarcity of basic goods, and mass migration, plunging millions into poverty. In 2007, post-election violence in Kenya, sparked by allegations of voter fraud, killed hundreds of people and caused widespread chaos.

On the other hand, free and fair elections, characterized by transparency and the rule of law, enhance the legitimacy of ruling institutions and increase public confidence in the democratic process. Although the so-called tiger economies are often cited as examples of the success of authoritarian rule, in reality the economies of countries as diverse as South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan only flourished fully after transitioning to democracy in the wake of economic collapse.  East.  The Asian crisis of 1997-1998.  This event may have buried the myth of authoritarian efficiency.

Previous models of “patriotic democracy,” as in the case of South Korea or outright authoritarianism in Indonesia, were all characterized by their inability to challenge the interests of the powerful.  It contributed greatly to the economic collapse. The countries then saw a rapid transition to participatory democracy, which led to political stability that increased investor confidence and attracted foreign investment.  And boost productivity and innovation by investing heavily in education and health care. Democracy requires the strengthening of electoral institutions through institutionally coordinated action, the institutionalization of strong and independent election commissions, a strong judicial system that ensures fairness, and transparent election processes that protect against violence. Ensuring transparency, accountability and inclusion harnesses the liberating power of choice, laying the foundation for a sustainable and prosperous future.

There is no institutional arrangement in Pakistan and the next government may be formed after elections that do not meet the criteria of being free and fair.  The lack of public support for the elected winning parties results in policy paralysis. A government with a dubious mission and limited political capital may prioritize self-preservation and managing public sentiment over meaningful reform. So, it is questionable whether wrong choices will lead to either political stability or economic recovery.