Trilateral Regional Partnership on the Horizon?

In Blog, Economic Security
March 3, 2022
Ramsha Noshab
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Pakistan-China ties have been long-standing within Asia’s geo-politics and have only further strengthened with the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, broader regional developments are on the horizon with a possible new tri-partite coalition comprising Pakistan, China, and Russia, considering the increasing cooperation in Afghanistan between the three countries. The relationship between these

Pakistan-China ties have been long-standing within Asia’s geo-politics and have only further strengthened with the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, broader regional developments are on the horizon with a possible new tri-partite coalition comprising Pakistan, China, and Russia, considering the increasing cooperation in Afghanistan between the three countries. The relationship between these Asian countries is evolving and a potentially effective trilateral partnership may arise in the near future, benefitting Pakistan. However, this may have implications for U.S. policy in the region and strained ties with the West.

With regard to Russia, Pakistan’s pursuit of economic growth and energy supplies, coupled with Russia’s objective to expand its economic and regional foothold in Asia, bring the two countries together. Over the past decade, Russia and Pakistan have demonstrated strong political will and taken different initiatives to enhance trade cooperation. On 15 July 2021, Russia and Pakistan signed the shareholders’ agreement for the PakStream Gas Pipeline Project (PSGP) and outlined the terms to construct a US $2.5 billion natural gas pipeline in Pakistan. This project is a part of a Russian investment package worth US $14 billion in Pakistan’s energy sector that was promised in 2019. According to the agreement, Pakistan has a majority stake in the project at 74 percent and Russia pledged to help Pakistan by providing expertise and funding.

Various factors have amalgamated and contributed towards this arising relationship between the three nations: Russia’s polarisation from the West and it building stronger ties with both China and Pakistan, Pakistan’s dissatisfaction with the USA over suspending security assistance, and India’s growing closeness with the US. The convergence of these aligned interests is leading to the formalisation of an ‘axis’ or a strategic ‘counter alliance’ between Russia, China, and Pakistan as they seek to push for a greater bipolarity in world affairs. Even if, at present, there is no formal arrangement in this regard, it is apparent that deeper engagements are increasing between the three.

As China continues to hold the centre stage of geo-politics in the Asian region, both Russia and Pakistan are seeking to adapt their foreign policy priorities in terms of the regional balance of power. Moreover, with the CPEC investment and infrastructure expansion within Pakistan, there are bright future prospects for Russia as it seeks to develop and expand its economic connections within Asia. Given the evolving geo-political and economic realities, an emerging tripartite alliance between China, Russia and Pakistan could well serve to curtail and counter India’s hold in the South Asian region. Meanwhile, India has consistently viewed China’s encroachment into its neighbourhood as hostile, and further condemns the passing of the CPEC through Pakistan-administered Kashmir, deeming it intolerable.

For Pakistan, the Prime Minister’s recent visit to Beijing was a affirmation of reiterating cooperation between Pakistan and China. There was consensus on high-quality development across sectors for agricultural modernisation, space cooperation, digitisation of networks within the country, industrial cooperation under the CPEC and introduction of smart infrastructure. Fourteen outcome documents and agreements were signed in this regard: a handing over certificate of the Gwadar Vocational Institute project, establishing framework agreement on industrial cooperation under CPEC, signing of Memoranda of Understanding for cooperation on Natural Risk Reduction and Emergency Response and cooperation on standardisation respectively, and the 2021 to 2030 Space Cooperation Outline between China and National Space Administration and Suparco.

Changing geopolitics in the Asian region have engendered new alignments in the region. Afghanistan in particular has been fraught and plagued with instability and turmoil for the past 20 years. However, that is finally coming to a close and is proving a uniting factor for China-Pakistan-Russian relations. For Pakistan, getting closer to Russia and China would allow it greater security gains, especially in light of the current state of uncertainty in Afghanistan. Despite this, Pakistan will need to carefully navigate between Russia and China’s economic competitiveness and protect its own national interests.