The incomplete peace project – Pakistan and India’s bilateral relationship

In Blog
April 5, 2021
Abdul Aziz
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Pakistan and India have had sporadic episodes of peace in between long-drawn periods of hostility and turmoil. The two South Asian nuclear neighbors have been unable to form a lasting peace even when there have been leaders that have expressed goodwill. Fundamental issues like Kashmir have often been avoided in peace talks which have led

Pakistan and India have had sporadic episodes of peace in between long-drawn periods of hostility and turmoil. The two South Asian nuclear neighbors have been unable to form a lasting peace even when there have been leaders that have expressed goodwill. Fundamental issues like Kashmir have often been avoided in peace talks which have led other non-state actors to play spoilsport in the region. Today, there has arisen a new opportunity for the two nuclear neighbors to improve their relationship, but it will take statesmanship, diplomacy, and commitment of the highest level to address the elephant in the room (Kashmir) and resolve the issue sincerely for once and for all.

Pakistani and Indian DGMOs (Director General of Military operations) last month recommitted to the 2003 ceasefire line agreement, it is believed that some backdoor channel of diplomacy led to this reaffirmation and there may have been a third country like the United States involved. Pakistani policymakers have also extended a gesture of goodwill in the Islamabad security dialogue by offering to let bygones be bygones and move towards a new era of the bilateral relationship. This gesture of goodwill was followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he congratulated Pakistan on its Republic Day and expressed his desire for a cordial relationship with all its neighbors including Pakistan.

However, people who have been following the bilateral relationship of the two countries closely are cognizant of the fact that peace initiatives like these have begun in the past, but they failed to materialize into long term sustainable peace. So, the question that naturally arises is why have Pakistan and India been unable to build on the initiatives of peace and goodwill? And why has peace only existed in small phases? To understand and perhaps answer these complex questions, it’s important to understand the history of Pakistan and India peace talks and why they have failed to bring sustainable peace in the long run for the Indian subcontinent.

Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Lahore in 1999 through the Wagah border. The visit promised a beginning of peace and tranquility in the region. Following his visit, the two countries signed the Lahore Declaration, which was the first major agreement since the Simla agreement in 1972. The two countries decided to form confidence-building measures (CBMS). Nonetheless, the dialogue was soon disrupted as the nuclear neighbors had a standoff at Kargil, which bought them close to a fourth full-fledged war.

The incident of Kargil shows that despite making progress in the peace relations, there was deep mistrust between the two countries. This deep mistrust is a result of the failure of the two countries to form a relationship based on mutual respect that appreciates the strategic and policy interest of both countries. India has also repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting non-state actors without any proof and it has used terrorism as a distraction to avoid talking about Kashmir and the brutalities that take place in the valley. It refuses to take responsibility and acknowledge the oppressive conditions that exist in Kashmir.

The two countries, however, attempted to address the Kashmir issue in the Agra Summit but unfortunately, the conference failed to bear any result and no political consensus was reached. Another attempt at peace was made when President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee met at the 12^th Saarc Summit. The two premiers decided to initiate dialogue and started the composite dialogue process, which took place between high-end Pakistani and Indian officials, including foreign ministers’ foreign secretaries and military officials to discuss bilateral ties.

While the composite dialogue lasted for a few years and it bought Pakistan and India close to finding long-lasting peace. The Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee was reluctant to finalize the agreement on Kashmir. The inconclusive talks on Kashmir meant that countries could not fully remove the barriers to realizing the true potential of peace in the region. India’s deep mistrust of Pakistan yet again played spoilsport as the unfortunate Mumbai terrorist attack bought the nuclear neighbors to the brink of war.

After a few years of hostilities, Pakistan and India yet again began peace talks when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took power in 2015 following which Prime Minister Modi invited him to India for his inauguration. The two premiers were planning to meet in the Paris climate meeting but due to a terrorist attack at home, Prime Minister Sharif canceled his visit. Whereafter, PM Modi paid an unannounced and unexpected visit to Pakistan to attend PM Sharif’s daughter’s wedding. The visit bought with it a new wave of optimism, people on both sides were hopeful that the personal relationship between PM Modi and PM Sharif might finally give peace a chance.

However, soon afterward the relationship came to a stalemate as the Indian state claimed that it conducted surgical strikes in Pakistan after non-state actors attacked an Indian military base killing 19 soldiers. These events bought the two countries back to square one. The situation was further worsened after BJP won power for the second time and started adopting stricter Hindutva policies backed by the RSS and unilaterally changed the status of Kashmir by scrapping Article 370 and 35-A of the Indian Constitution.

India’s refusal to acknowledge Kashmir as a legitimate bilateral issue and Pakistani policymakers’ hesitancy in bringing the Kashmir issue has often allowed non-state actors to avert the peace between the two nations. No long-term and sustainable composite dialogue can begin without earnestly and respectfully addressing each other’s core concerns. For Pakistan, it is to understand, India’s mistrust and skepticism and for India, it is to accept that Kashmir will always be a bilateral issue on which diplomatic talks need to take place to finally reach a resolution that is acceptable to all stakeholders in the region including the Kashmiris.

While reaching a consensus on the Kashmir issue and addressing the deep mistrust between the two countries is not impossible, it is an incredibly strenuous and complex task that will take enormous effort and commitment from both sides for a peaceful and sustainable resolution. A new phase of peace talks may begin again with PM Imran Khan and PM Modi but for any real and sustainable peace to last, both nations have to accept that there will be no long-term solution without respectfully and honestly acknowledging the issues that have set them apart till this day.