The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan’s stake

In Blog, Economic Security, National Security
June 10, 2021
Abdul Aziz
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Pakistan has moved from a geostrategic to geoeconomics foreign policy and the stability of Afghanistan is key to making this shift possible. A peaceful, prosperous, and independent Afghanistan opens door to central Asia and beyond. However, with the American and NATO forces leaving by September 11 and no intra Afghan peace deal in place, a

Pakistan has moved from a geostrategic to geoeconomics foreign policy and the stability of Afghanistan is key to making this shift possible. A peaceful, prosperous, and independent Afghanistan opens door to central Asia and beyond. However, with the American and NATO forces leaving by September 11 and no intra Afghan peace deal in place, a power vacuum in Afghanistan is inevitable. To minimize a power vacuum, Pakistan and other regional powers must cooperate and ensure that a civil war in Afghanistan does not destabilize the region. And while western powers may be leaving now, the time for regional actors to step up is just beginning.

Today, the Afghan civilian government controls around 50 percent of the territory in Afghanistan, while the Taliban control 30 percent of it, the rest 20 percent is disputed and there are ongoing battles for it. The Taliban and Afghan forces have been unable to reach a ceasefire or an agreement to reduce violence. This in turn has resulted in a security crisis in the country as the incentive for peace is now slowly vanishing and both parties see a chance to assume complete power.

When the Doha agreement was signed, there was an incentive for peace all around. There were some inroads made in intra Afghan peace talks too, however, all of it changed when the American president Joe Biden after coming into power declared that he will review the Doha agreement and within a few months announced that America would be making an unconditional withdrawal by September 11.

The word unconditional is critical here, it signaled to the Taliban forces that the Americans want to leave Afghanistan regardless of whether intra Afghan talks are successful or not and that the Afghan civilian government was on its own. The incentive that the Taliban had for engaging in intra Afghan peace talks ceased to exist. On the other hand, the Afghan government has also refused to show any flexibility or agree on a power-sharing arrangement with the Taliban which has further complicated the peace process.

Pakistan is one of the few countries that bears the biggest brunt of any violence in Afghanistan. Pakistan shares a 2700 kilometers border with Afghanistan, and it hosts nearly 3 million Afghan refugees in the country. Any instability in Afghanistan effectively does two things. 1. It opens the door for more Afghan refugees that will create pressure on state resources and a struggling economy. 2. The threat of terrorism can increase as the Pakistani Taliban have safe havens in Afghanistan and threaten stability in the country.

Pakistan has played a positive and vibrant role in initiating the peace process from facilitating to offering its assistance. Pakistan has also increased its trade with Afghanistan. The State bank of Pakistan confirmed that Pakistan’s exports of goods and services to Afghanistan increased 2.5 percent in the financial year of 2020 – 2021. Pakistan has plans to further increase trade that will be beneficial for not just Pakistan but also Afghanistan.

However, while the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has improved since the starting of the peace process. The Afghan government has on occasions blamed Pakistan for insurgency in Afghanistan which the Pakistan government has denied. As recently as a few days earlier the Afghan national security adviser Hamdullah Mohib accused Pakistan of supporting the Taliban insurgency and went as far as to calling Pakistan a “brothel house”. Pakistani government made a strong objection to the statement and refused to continue talks with the current Afghan national security adviser.

It is hard to deny that there is still some distrust between the Afghan civilian government and Pakistan. The Afghan politicians do not want to give up power or agree to a transitional government with the Taliban. With that in the background, the sincere efforts made by Pakistan for peace are sometimes viewed with a skeptical lens within Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to ensure that it continues its sincere efforts of peace in the region by getting other regional powers on board.

Pakistan needs to be prepared for the worst. A Taliban rule or a civil war in Afghanistan is not beneficial for the region, and while Pakistan prepares for all eventualities. A new strategy in the region needs to be adopted. Regional actors have to start building up alliances, Pakistan and China along with Afghanistan have collectively vouched for peace in Afghanistan. Alliances like these need to continue and more regional actors must be added to it. Pakistan needs to form regional alliances and create a bloc of all neighbors to Afghanistan and discuss the possibilities of all eventualities and prepare for its consequences.

A situation similar to the 1990’s civil war in Afghanistan is something Pakistan especially cannot afford today as it actively peruses a new geo-economic strategy. Pakistan wants to connect central Asia with South Asia and use CPEC to advance its new economic goals as well as help Afghanistan economically prosper. The region will only prosper if there is regional connectivity and shared economic development through meaningful projects. However, an unstable Afghanistan means that Pakistan’s goal of economic inclusivity in the region will remain unfulfilled and threaten peace in the entire region.

Afghanistan must remain independent however, there will be no peace in south and central Asia without peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to cooperate with countries like Iran, China, India, Russia, and Afghan leaders and lead the Afghan peace process by different incentives including economic sanctions/incentives to get parties back on the negotiating table. Western powers have made decisions for our region for too long, it is time now for our region to make its own decisions, it is time for Afghanistan to control its own fate.