The Afghan Peace Process: What is happening?

In Backgrounder, Human Security, National Security
June 8, 2021
Safiah Niamat
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Afghanistan appears stuck. The negotiations with the Taliban are on hold, the level of violence is high, a new administration in Washington is reexamining its commitment to Kabul, and the call for an interim government is growing. Kabul now waits to see what the new Biden team will do. If the Biden team moves to

Afghanistan appears stuck. The negotiations with the Taliban are on hold, the level of violence is high, a new administration in Washington is reexamining its commitment to Kabul, and the call for an interim government is growing. Kabul now waits to see what the new Biden team will do. If the Biden team moves to renegotiate the agreement with the Taliban and keep American troops in Afghanistan beyond this May, then Kabul and President Ghani can relax, although not for long. However, if the Biden team decides to honor the February 2020 agreement and remove American troops from Afghanistan by May of 2021, then the Taliban will have won and the Ghani government in Kabul will be in a very difficult position. Afghanistan has been at war for over 40 years, with 20 of those years involving the United States. While the end of Afghanistan’s troubles is in sight, the final ending still remains distant.

The peace talks between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban were set to resume in Doha, Qatar on January 6, 2021. Yet, to date, the talks have not restarted, except for minor meetings of staff over issues of protocol. The failure to restart the talks is in part because both sides are waiting to see what the Biden administration is going to do, especially whether or not the United States will abide by the agreement the Trump administration struck with the Taliban in February of 2020. This agreement called, among other things, for the withdrawal of all United States troops from Afghanistan by May 2021. In the meantime, the violence in Afghanistan continues unabated, with the killing of politicians, journalists, peace workers, and university students. The government of Ashraf Ghani seems unable, or unwilling, to stop this carnage as his government faces increasing pressure to form an interim government. All of this is taking place while the Covid-19 virus continues to ravage this poor country.

Over the last four decades, the conflict in Afghanistan has played like a distressing background noise in the lives of people around the world. Marred by domestic contradictions, regional rivalries and lofty geopolitical ambitions of international actors, this hostile crisis is often characterized as a ‘forever war’, especially since the US invasion in late 2001 post-9/11. Prospects for peace in the region remain elusive due to high levels of mistrust between conflict parties, their uncompromising demands, and a lack of clear direction and strategy to address the situation. Given the protracted nature of this conflict, and the unrelenting destruction and suffering that it has resulted in, any ray of hope for peace is bound to arouse tremendous interest.

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

The first contact with the Afghan government came just two days after the presidential inauguration on January 22, 2021, when Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called his Afghan counterpart, Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib. Sullivan indicated to Mohib that the United States intends to review the February agreement. President Biden formed a working group of high-level American government officials and experts to advise him on this issue, co-chaired by retired General Joseph Dunford, who urged Biden to abandon the Trump agreement, since the possibility of civil war in Afghanistan would be high if US withdraws all remaining troops.

For now, the Biden team attempts to renegotiate the February 2020 agreement with the Taliban.

THE INTRA-AFGHAN NEGOTIATIONS IN DOHA

The negotiations between the Afghan Government and the Taliban were to restart after a month-long break on January 6, 2021. However, to date, there has been no progress except for meetings of minor staff over issues of protocol. Most of the senior officials of the parties have returned home: to Kabul in the case of the government negotiators, and to Pakistan in the case of the Taliban side. Clearly, both sides are waiting to see what Biden’s team will do, but the negotiations are also stalled because both sides have goals that are incompatible with the other side. The Taliban, which believes that it has essentially won the war, is willing to wait for the withdrawal of American troops as agreed upon with the United States in the February 2020 agreement. With the American troops gone, the Taliban believe that the Ghani government cannot survive and that they will be able to take over Afghanistan.

The Afghan government, on the other hand, comes to the negotiations trying to keep its rule intact. Ghani has stressed three issues that are important to his government going forward: the importance of democratic elections, the rule of democratic law based on the Afghan constitution, and the legitimacy of his rule as the elected president of Afghanistan until the end of his term in 2025. The difficulty with the Afghan government’s position in the negotiations is that it does not leave room for the Taliban to join the government. In addition, the Kabul government is pushing for a ceasefire. The level of violence is clearly too high and is eroding popular support for the government. In the February 2020 agreement, the Taliban agreed to cease hostile actions against United States forces, but it did not agree to cease hostile actions against Afghan forces. In fact, the Taliban has increased attacks on Afghan military posts and personnel and has gained control of large chunks of Afghanistan, including areas near and surrounding Kabul itself.

VIOLENCE IN KABUL

The violence in Afghanistan has surged by 50 percent over recent months, even as the peace talks have been underway. These killings have included not only military personnel, but also journalists, government officials, aid workers, and university students. In the last six months, over 50 journalists and reporters have been killed. The Taliban have denied having anything to do with the increased violence.

INTERIM GOVERNMENT

As the negotiations in Doha between the Afghan government and the Taliban languish and the Ghani government in Kabul struggles with violence and corruption, the momentum for forming an interim, or transitional, government continues to grow. When there is a peace deal with the Taliban, Taliban leaders and Taliban ideas of Islamic governance will have to be incorporated into the Afghan governmental structure. This will be almost impossible with the present government, but more likely if there is an interim government in power that would be open to the incorporation of Taliban ideas. In addition, there is growing feeling that one of the major obstacles to peace is President Ghani himself who seems unwilling to compromise in dealing with the Taliban. Therefore, it would make sense, some Afghan politicians have suggested, to form an interim government, led by Afghan leaders who are more neutral, or at least open, to incorporating the Taliban into the governmental structure.

President Ghani continues to argue that he was elected president of Afghanistan in the 2019 presidential elections and that he rules according to a constitution that was approved by the Afghan people through a loya Jirga. He maintains that he will serve out his five-year term ending in 2025. However, outside of Ghani’s tight circle of supporters, the call for an interim or transitional government grows. Several other Afghan leaders are leaning towards supporting an interim government, including Atta Mohammed Noor, Amin Ahmadi and others.

Ross Wilson, the senior United States diplomat in Kabul, has denied that Washington is advocating for an interim government, reporting that “the outcomes of Afghanistan Peace Negotiations are up to the Afghans and we believe those outcomes should reflect the wishes and aspirations of the Afghan people”.

While an interim government may move the stalled negotiations forward, it may also create chaos and destabilize an already fragile country. The country sits on the precipice of civil war.