The rivalry between India and Pakistan has been long standing. Whenever we talk about India and Pakistan, Kashmir is a topic that always arises. Disagreements over water, accusations of suspicion and spying, ceasefire violations are some of the problems which have caused the relationship between the two become bitter. One of the most prominent conflicts between the countries arises regarding the status of Kashmir. Kashmir became the focal point of dispute during the 1947 partition when both the countries claimed the territory belonged to them. 74 years later, the dispute is yet to be resolved. Both the countries have even fought four wars, the 1947 war, the war of 1965, the 1971 war and the 1999 war otherwise known as the Kargil war.  Both states have also had border skirmishes with the most recent one in 2020 along the Line of Control, which is a de facto border in the disputed region of Kashmir.

Pakistan and India however did try to make efforts for peace during the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s first tenure in office under the leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee. Peace talks were regularly held between Vajpayee and then Pakistani President, General Pervez Musharraf. The talks even resulted in a ceasefire in 2003. Both countries also signed the Confidence Building Measures Pact which allowed trade and travel between the divided region of Kashmir. A framework agreement was also signed which many experts believe to be a lasting solution to the Kashmiri conflict. The relationship turned bitter again after the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Ever since Narendra Modi took over office, an anti-pakistani approach has been taken by the Indian Prime Minister. The controversial removal of Article 370 and Article 35A from the Indian Constitution once again caused the relationship to plunge even further with Pakistan highlighting the violence faced by Kashmiris because of Modi’s decisions and his plans of changing the demography of the Muslim majority Kashmir in order to make Kashmir part of India.

However, in a surprising turn of events, in February 2021, an announcement was made regarding the 2003 ceasefire agreement which stated that ‘strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control (LoC) and all other sectors” with effect from the midnight of February 24/25 (Wednesday).’ While this is a positive development, many analysts have deemed it as a purely ‘tactical move’ to serve short term interests of the two countries.

Interestingly, verbal assaults by both the states have also stopped and the tone is of reconciliation and dispute resolution. This could be seen in the speech made by Prime Minister Imran Khan at the  Islamabad Dialogue Conference as well as in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s letter to Imran Khan on the occasion of Pakistan Resolution Day. In the letter, Modi expressed a desire to have a ‘cordial relationship’ with its neighbour and mentioned that the for any improvement in the relationship there has to be ‘environment of trust, devoid of terrorism and hostility, is imperative.’

Keeping in mind the changing situation between the two countries, many hope that there will be some progress regarding the Kashmir issue. There may be a chance that the two Governments sit together and perhaps come to a conclusion but that seems unlikely. The Modi government has uttered anti-Pakistan sentiments since the very beginning. Will it take a U-turn? If the government does indeed do so, it will do it to push its own narrative of trying to mend ties with Pakistan. It may also be done in order to showcase India as a peaceful country.

Regardless of the motives between peace talks, such talks are very crucial and much needed given the history between the two. If the enmity continues between Pakistan and India, it is only going to be detrimental for both of them. This is a small window of opportunity that the two nations must take in order to improve their diplomatic relations, economic relations and can work on issues of common interest.

Besides Kashmir, Pakistan and India can work on ways to reduce any risk of future conflicts. Both the countries need to work together to reduce the possibility of a nuclear conflict which would cause mass destruction. Water conflict also needs to be resolved through mechanisms which are mentioned in the Indus Basin Treaty and in accordance with International law. Both countries face energy shortages as well as made prominent by the blackout of Northern India in July 2012 and consecutive electricity outages for many years in Pakistan. Both countries can work together on the energy sector in order to improve economic development.

Both the governments would need to make difficult decisions if they want to achieve peace in the region. It has been argued that India has been willing to discuss issues other than the Kashmir issue with Pakistan. It is imperative that Prime Minister Modi understand that cordial relation can be maintained through positive acts. As previously mentioned, one of the oldest and perhaps one of the biggest conflicts between the two states is Kashmir. The Indian government needs to discuss Kashmir and it needs to commit to resolving the Kashmir issue in accordance with the UNSC resolutions. Thus, even though Kashmir is what causes tension between the two states, the current situation is an opportunity for both countries. There are many issues that can be worked on and solved. Once other conflicts are solved, maybe India and Pakistan can also come to an agreement regarding Kashmir.

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Mahnoor Islam

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