Is the Taliban a stronger force than the Afghan National Army?

In Blog, Human Security
August 12, 2021
Abdul Aziz
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The Taliban has never been stronger at any point in their history than today, they have up to 85,000 fighters and they have taken more territory since they were ousted in 2001. The Afghan National Army on the other hand despite being more in numbers and resources is falling behind. The main reason for this

The Taliban has never been stronger at any point in their history than today, they have up to 85,000 fighters and they have taken more territory since they were ousted in 2001. The Afghan National Army on the other hand despite being more in numbers and resources is falling behind. The main reason for this lies in the fact that the Afghan National Army and the police have historically heavily relied on foreign forces for assistance. Along with that, the Afghan government’s inefficiency in providing resources on time has led to a demoralized and dysfunctional force.

The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. Since then, the Taliban has been fighting from the fringes but growing stronger with each passing day. and The Taliban started its first direct peace negotiations with the Afghan government in 2020 after signing an agreement with the United States. While little to no progress has been made with the intra Afghan deal, the United States has started withdrawing its force from the region and will complete the evacuation by 9^th September.

While the United States may claim victory, the Taliban has successfully regrouped and survived operations from one of the world’s most powerful security alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and three U.S. administrations in a war that has killed more than 6,000 U.S. troops and contractors and over 1,100 NATO troops.

Regardless, the United States and NATO’s armies were of great help and assistance to the Afghan military in protecting the territories they controlled. But as they have mostly evacuated, a lot of regions are back up for grab. The Taliban has a strong presence in areas like Ghazni and Maidan Wardak. They are also close to capturing major cities such as Kunduz, Herat, Kandahar, and Lashkar Gah. While the Taliban military has had success over the Afghan national army, it is important to note that the situation on the ground is still fluid.

The Afghan national army and the police have given some districts where the Taliban had a clear strategic advantage and where withholding distracts was tougher. While some other regions have been taken by the Taliban through sheer force. However, since the fighting is continuing and the Afghan forces have not been defeated, things can change rapidly. Regardless, the Taliban’s hold over these new territories gives them a stronger negotiating position.

The Taliban has also built its reputation over the years of being cruel, since 2003 more than 73,000 troops have been killed by the Taliban, this has also played a role in how the Afghan forces and police perceive the Taliban once they have a strategic advantage. Taliban’s torture and cruelty are often spared if you surrender and so that has been one cause where police officers instead of putting up a fight when they are overwhelmed prefer giving up arms instead to protect their lives.

The Afghan politicians have also been slow in providing resources or backup forces which has demotivated Afghan forces. Afghan politicians whose families often reside abroad have been unable to inspire hope in the Afghan soldiers. There is a question mark as to whether they would even remain in the country if a full-scale war was to erupt. It is one of the many factors that has led to the Afghan forces’ relatively weak fight against the Taliban.

Afghan security experts have referred to the concept of “tactical retreat”. This takes place when the enemy (in this instance Taliban) makes tactical gains and forces have to retreat to further avoid causalities. However, some Afghan commanders have complained that there has been a lack of ammunition and delays in sending support. When the province of Badakhshan fell the Afghan government officials were the first to escape to Kabul. There is a political leadership crisis and while the Afghan national army is more in numbers it hasn’t been so far able to use its full force thus far.

Taliban now hold 142 districts and are fighting for control of about 170 more. envoy Zamir Kabulove in an interview showed concern that Afghan troops had surrendered too many districts which may make the situation very unstable. Taliban’s recent seizure of districts in three provinces — Wardak, Logar, and Laghman — that surround Kabul send ominous signs as with these districts falling, the fall of Kabul isn’t far.

However as mentioned above, the fighting is ongoing and the Afghan forces can make a strong come back and take certain districts back from the Taliban. Regardless, there is a dire need for political leadership and clarity in military strategy in Afghanistan. In the war so far though, the Taliban have emerged as the stronger force. And while the Taliban are not impossible to defeat, their rapid gains have given them a huge military advantage and there is a sense of inevitability in the air about their victory in Kabul and around the region.