The Indus Water Treaty 1960: Does India really want peace?

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April 7, 2021
Hamna Sajjad
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Ever since the independence of Pakistan, there has been constant tension between the country and its neighbor, India. This tension has led to wars, animosity on international platforms and increased resentment in the hearts of both nations people for one another, despite the short periods of amity. A prime reason for this tension has been

Ever since the independence of Pakistan, there has been constant tension between the country and its neighbor, India. This tension has led to wars, animosity on international platforms and increased resentment in the hearts of both nations people for one another, despite the short periods of amity. A prime reason for this tension has been political unrest but there seems to be another period of amity seemingly brewing between the nations, understood by the change in India’s attitude at the recent annual Permanent Indus Commission meeting held in New Delhi on the 23^rd and 24^th of March. However, it is too early to say that this period of truce is different from the previous ones, for India requires time in order to convince Pakistan that it aims to establish a harmonious relationship.

The Indus rivers are used for irrigation, in order to ready the harvest. The Indus Water Treaty 1960 was formally arranged by the World Bank and came into being as a result of conflict after the short-term stand-still agreement was expired in 1948. Within the treaty, India has been given exclusive use over the eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, whereas, Pakistan has been given the western rivers – Indus, Jehlum and Chenab along with the right to object to the designs of India’s hydropower projects which affect Pakistan’s rivers.

The treaty also provides for there to be a Permanent Indus Commission in order to maintain a bridge of communication and to resolve any questions which may arise concerning the treaty. Nevertheless, the two nations have clashed over matters concerning the Indus rivers. This is because India has been guilty of violating the treaty provisions and building dams on the western rivers, whereas India believes Pakistan has more control over the water as a result of the treaty.

There are multiple issues that have occurred between the two nuclear South Asian countries. The first issue raised concerned the Salal dam in, followed by the issue of Baglihar dam, where Pakistan was helped by the World Bank. These indicated at the lack of importance India gave to Pakistan’s right to objection and implied little desire on part of the Indian government for cooperation. The third conflict arose over the Kishanganga Hydro Electricity Project (KHEP) in Kashmir, the longest dispute with which Pakistan has dealt with. Not only did Pakistan take the dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration but it kept challenging the construction in 2016 and 2018. It also took military action by firing eighteen shells in North Kashmir, yet its efforts were for naught because in 2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated three unites of the KHEP, blatantly disregarding Pakistan’s objections and suggesting at the prevalent political unrest at the time.

Further political tension only followed as, in 2019, after a suicide attack in Pulwama in Kashmir Valley, Nitian Gadkari, the Union Minister of water resources, expressed the Indian government decision to stop its share of water of the eastern rivers from flowing into Pakistan. When one considers how the Indian government would have calculated this share, the possibility of bias by the Indian government cannot be overlooked. Yet, despite India showing indifference, the country also appeared to be willing to settle matters over the Indus rivers and thereby, giving Pakistan mixed signals.

This can be understood when we consider how India suspended the annual Permanent Indus Commission meeting in 2016 due to an attack on the Indian Army’s camp in Uri in Jammu Kashmir, but attended the 2017 meeting held in Islamabad and, subsequently, the one held in 2018. In the latter meeting, technical discussions were held on various hydroelectric projects and the two countries agreed to undertake the International Water Treaty’s (IWT) mandated tours of the Indus Commissioners on both sides. Furthermore, India also invited a Pakistani delegation to inspect the sites of the hydroelectric projects being constructed on Pakistani rivers.

However, the very next year in 2019, India failed to deliver information regarding floods to Pakistan, as was its treaty obligation, despite Pakistan giving repeated reminders and making frequent requests. Along with this, the visit to the KHEP project became overdue and India showed reluctance in providing data on new projects on Pakistan’s rivers. Furthermore, the country went back on its twenty-nine-year-old practice of providing regular three-month data on flooding by writing to Pakistan that it would provide flood data only in the case of extraordinary floods. The annual meeting which was to be held could not take place due to the evasive attitude of the Indian government.

In spite of this, the recently two-day meeting held in New Delhi on March 23^rd and 24^th comes two years later and has been viewed as an important development both by Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa. But, although it can be claimed that India is merely fulfilling its treaty obligations, what appears to differentiate this meeting from the previous ones is India’s attitude. Pakistan, as is the country right, raised objections on at least four different projects being undertaken by India on its rivers – the Pakal Dul, Lower Kulnai, Durbuk Shyok and Nimu Chilling and India responded with both, listening to the objections and promising a serious review.

The country further shared flood data during the monsoon season as per its treaty obligation and agreed to give names and dates for the project sites visit, showing willingness to have a Pakistani delegation visit. Moreover, Mehar Ali, the Indus Water Commissioner from Pakistan, showed optimism, expressing that the “dialogue with the neighboring country on the water issues would continue in the future”. He stated that this meeting was a positive step forward which had not been taken since the last meeting held in August 2018 and that the next meeting is expected to be held after April 1^st this year.

Notwithstanding this, the history which India and Pakistan share concerning the 1960 treaty should not be overlooked, for it plays a rather crucial role in understanding whether the meetings held this year will bear a different fruit from the ones previously held. India’s attitude does indicate a desire to cooperate in order to have stable relations with Pakistan but, at the same time, it will not be wrong to wonder how long this collusive attitude will last. The reality is that, despite this change in attitude, India has yet to prove that it aims to establish peace with Pakistan as its neighbor and for this, Pakistan needs to give India time without letting the optimism it harbors after the two-day meeting cloud its better judgment.