Pakistan’s New Foreign Policy Paradigm.

In Blog
March 26, 2021
Abdul Aziz
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Pakistani policymakers have hinted towards a shift in Islamabad’s foreign policy paradigm in the recently concluded Islamabad Security Dialogue, a shift from a predominantly geostrategic policy to a geo-economics one. Pakistan wants to be at the center of an East-West connection in South Asia and its new outlook is based on achieving sustainable economic and

Pakistani policymakers have hinted towards a shift in Islamabad’s foreign policy paradigm in the recently concluded Islamabad Security Dialogue, a shift from a predominantly geostrategic policy to a geo-economics one. Pakistan wants to be at the center of an East-West connection in South Asia and its new outlook is based on achieving sustainable economic and human development. Such a policy in the region cannot be implemented without having some normalization of economic ties with India. Within that context, it is likely that a new foreign policy may be introduced to balance ties with the Republic of India.

Pakistan since its inception has been blessed with an incredibly important geostrategic location, from direct connecting routes to Centre Asia, the Indian ocean, and most importantly to big economic markets like China and India. However, Pakistan due to its constraints of being in a hostile neighborhood was forced to prioritize its defense and survival and use its geostrategic location to determine its foreign policy goals.

While Pakistan did reap the benefits of having an exclusively geostrategic policy especially during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Pakistan eventually paid a huge price of being a US ally in the cold war as it lost thousands of lives in the internal war and terrorism that followed it. Today, while in hindsight, it seems like an obvious mistake, it was the only viable and pragmatic decision for Pakistan at the time. Pakistan needed the support of a superpower like the US as Islamabad had already fought two wars with India on the unresolved issue of Jammu and Kashmir.

The United States’ heavy reliance on Pakistan first as an ally in the Cold War and then as a partner in the war on terror provided Pakistan with substantial economic support. Where US’ economic support wasn’t enough, Pakistan took the financial assistance of international organizations like the IMF and World Bank. However, with the Afghan War finally coming to an end, and the rising debts putting enormous pressure on the country, policymakers in Islamabad have finally realized that such a model of geostrategic policy that heavily depends on foreign economic support is not sustainable in the global capitalist order of the world.

Moreover, national security is inevitably compromised if there is persistent and consistent reliance on global powers even if they are allies, who often have their own geostrategic interest. This new policy shift of moving from predominantly traditional security policy to a balance of traditional and non-traditional security policy requires economic cooperation in the region. And the doors of economic prosperity in our region lie through peace in Afghanistan and strong economic ties with China and India.

Pakistan’s strategic and all-weather relationship with China gives it a head start in realizing this new geoeconomics policy, however, its relationship with India is full of thorns and it will take statesmanship and diplomacy of the highest caliber to change it. To better understand what Pakistan’s new policy regarding India will be, Chief of Army Staff, General Bajwa’s speech is especially relevant. He said the national security of all countries will only thrive if there is regional peace and economic prosperity.

While the statement does suggest a shift in policy towards India, it is likely that all major issues between the two nations like Kashmir and state terrorism might be continued to be raised. Pakistan’s new India policy will most likely have two strands to it. First, it will highlight plights of Kashmir’s and put diplomatic pressure on India to relax the draconian measures imposed on Kashmiris. On the other hand, the second strand of this approach will heavily prioritize poverty alleviation, regional trade with India, and investment in sustainable economic and human development.

The reflection of this new approach could be seen in the Islamabad dialogue itself. Shah Mehmood Qureshi in the Islamabad Security Dialogue took a much stricter tone to India. He said, while Pakistan was a willing to engage India in good faith, it is India that has bedeviled peace in the region. He further said that India has taken several steps backward by its aggressive approach in the region, especially by unilaterally deciding to abolish Article 370 and 35-A. The foreign minister also blamed India for violating basic human and fundamental rights in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

He further highlighted how India led by Hindutva right-wing party like BJP was trying to change the demographic structure of the occupied territory of Kashmir which is a blatant violation of the UN Security Council resolution that guarantees Kashmir’s basic right to self-determination through an impartial plebiscite. He said the onus is on India to create an enabling environment for peace by taking unilateral actions on Kashmir back. Special Advisor on National Security to the Prime Minister, Moeed Yousuf also emphasized that this dialogue and the discourse on economic connectivity and human development must not be understood to be a departure from Pakistan’s established foreign policy stances.

The second strand of the new approach was mainly addressed by General Bajwa, where he said that Pakistan’s new geostrategic approach is primarily based on four principles, the first consisted of moving towards enduring peace internally and externally, the second on noninterference policy in the region, the third on regional connectivity and trade and lastly on bringing sustainable development in the region through investment and economic hubs.

Furthermore, General Bajwa specifically regarding India said, “it is time to bury the past and move forward”. General Bajwa noted that the subcontinent had more than 1.5 billion but the region had failed to utilize the true economic potential of the region and instead a vicious cycle of war and poverty has been looming over our region. While admitting no long-lasting peace can come about in the region without the resolution of the Kashmir dispute, he indicated that Pakistan was open to forming an economic relationship with India with intra region trade and connectivity.

This is what Pakistan’s new foreign policy in general and especially regarding India looks like, where Islamabad wants to form a relationship that is similar to what Beijing has with New Delhi, where there are border disputes and some tension now and then but it rarely affects the trade between the two countries. Pakistan wants to realize its true economic potential and it understands that intra-regional peace and economic prosperity is the only way forward. However, Islamabad will ensure that the new geoeconomics policy does not come at the cost of compromising on its key foreign policy principles.

Whether this new policy will succeed in bringing long-lasting peace and development in the region is a question that is yet to be answered. However, the ball is now in India’s court to create a conducive environment for peace as the region has a unique and unprecedented opportunity to advance economic cooperation. Time will tell what shape and form the bilateral relationship will take from here but the one thing that is certain is that Pakistan of the past is gone and a new geoeconomics future is on the horizon.