Where is the Afghan Peace Process headed and Pakistan’s Role

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March 26, 2021
Mehreen Naushad
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The Afghan Peace Process stands at a very precarious moment and carries a high risk of collapsing. The Afghan Peace Talks has made little progress since the first round of the intra-Afghan Dialogue in Doha on September 2020. The Doha Deal has been in large unable to stop the violence in the country. Furthermore, the

The Afghan Peace Process stands at a very precarious moment and carries a high risk of collapsing. The Afghan Peace Talks has made little progress since the first round of the intra-Afghan Dialogue in Doha on September 2020. The Doha Deal has been in large unable to stop the violence in the country. Furthermore, the new Biden Administration has also initiated a review of the Deal to determine whether the Taliban have upheld their part of the agreement, and ascertain the necessity of withdrawal of troops by May 01, 2021. Pakistan has advised the US Government to abide by the Agreement, as a failed outcome of the peace talks is likely to carry grave repercussions for Pakistan. This article looks at where the peace talks are headed and what it means for Pakistan.

The United States has shifted from a militarily approach to a multilateral diplomacy approach in an effort to stabilize Afghanistan, and the end the decades long war. US hopes to bring together the major key stakeholders in the region, including Pakistan in order to curb the resurgence of terrorism. This is evidenced by the diplomatic efforts of numerous states across the world such as Russia, and Turkey.

On March 18, 2021, Russia hosted a peace conference for Afghanistan that brought together government representatives and their Taliban adversaries along with international observers in a bid to help jump-start the country’s stalled peace process. The only major change to emerge from the Moscow conclave is that Pakistan, the US, China and Russia appear to have a common view of the Afghan peace process. Moreover, Turkey has also taken center stage in the Afghan peace process with the US proposal to hold a conference next month in Turkey bringing the warring factions to the negotiating table. In addition to this, according to the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Washington has also intended to ask the UN to convene foreign ministers and envoys from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India, and the US to discuss how to promote peace in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, even Pakistan has shifted to advocating for peaceful resolution of the Afghan Peace Process. This may be due to the shift in the foreign policy of Pakistan that no longer solely focuses on military security, but is now also inclusive of other national security issues such as economic security, health security, etc. Pakistan aims to develop itself as geo-economic state rather than a nation that is simply through the prism of its geo-strategic importance. Thus, a peaceful Afghanistan is vital to the national security concerns and geo-economic aims of Pakistan.

With the US seeking a multilateral diplomacy approach to find a resolution in Afghanistan, being back at the negotiating table with the major regional powers, Pakistan can improve its relations with other states. It provides Pakistan with the opportunity to attain one of its primary foreign policy aims with respect to Afghanistan – to establish a network of regional allies.

Furthermore, Pakistan hopes to work in collaboration with Afghanistan to suppress terror groups and alleviate the international community’s claims of state sponsored terrorism. This has a chance of affecting Pakistan’s position with the Financial Action Task Force, and can also lead to increased trade and possibly the reinstatement of economic aid flowing into the country. Moreover, from an economic standpoint, Pakistan aims to connect with Central Asia, and Middle East in order to establish not only bilateral diplomatic relations but also gain new trade partners. A peaceful Afghanistan is crucial for this aim to be realized, as the trade route will pass through Afghanistan.

However, Pakistan should not forget to also improve its ties with Afghanistan. Pakistan hopes for a friendly government in Kabul, and therefore has made a concerted effort to appear as a non-biased actor in the Afghan Peace Process by not positioning itself with one party. Improving its bilateral relations with Afghanistan is of utmost importance to Pakistan, in the context of India. Although India may not be an active participant in the peace process, it nonetheless has its own interests in Afghanistan’s stabilization. India has always had good ties with Afghanistan’s elected governments. Its interests in Afghanistan are simply to use its territory to keep a check on Pakistan’s power and influence in the region. By establishing a strong relationship with both the Afghan government and the Taliban, Pakistan can reduce India’s economic, political and security influence in Afghanistan.

Accordingly, Pakistan should hope for a mixed government to be established in Afghanistan. A Taliban-led government may lean more towards Pakistan in the political landscape, but Pakistan should not want them to be in complete control. A 1990s Afghanistan on Pakistan’s western front would lead to the resurgence of terrorism and militancy in the region by empowering terrorist groups in Pakistan such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Pakistan’s role in the Afghan Peace Process between the US, the Afghan government and the Taliban is very crucial. The future of peace and security in the region is dependent upon the role Pakistan chooses to play in the Afghan Peace Process – will it hamper or drive the peace process forward.

According to Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) of Afghanistan said that Pakistan is an important player in the Afghan peace process and its support is crucial for the peaceful settlement in the war-stricken country. Therefore, it is imperative that Pakistan continues to adopt the role of a facilitator in the Afghan Peace Process and a stable Afghanistan. However, it would be foolish to assume that once the peace process concludes, the region would stabilize overnight. The challenges to Pakistan’s national security will continue for years after. Thus, it is imperative that Pakistan adopts a concrete foreign policy in Afghanistan and continues to monitor the socio-economic and political landscape to mitigate the effects of the said challenges.