Iran and Israel have secured a central position in the geopolitical proceedings of the Middle East. Based on their historical experiences, both the states have endorsed two opposite but connected approaches of being open to diplomacy and assertiveness. The primary goal of both the states was to counter the Arab’s dominance in the region for which both the states have successfully shaped their regional policies. Both the states have employed the strategy of dealing with the enemy outside their territory. Therefore, Iran has been more effective in developing the network of its partners and engaging with the threats inside Iraq and Syria. Both Iran and Israel have also worked to foster their diplomatic relations. The Middle East is in much more crisis than it was even a year ago. The conflict has spread beyond just the fighting between Israel and Hamas.

Israel seems to have successfully built diplomatic ties with many states in the Middle East, including Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, the UAE, and Bahrain. It also maintains conventional relations with Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, Iran faces challenges in building relations with many Sunni Arab states. Both Israel and Iran continue to adopt aggressive policies to assert their supremacy in the region. In spite of their rivalry, both nations are internally strong, possess indigenous technologies, and have close ties with global powers, further escalating their competition for regional hegemony. This struggle is gradually reducing the traditional influence of Arab states in the Middle East. As tensions escalate, the risk of an all-out war involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran grows, with the potential for the conflict to expand across Lebanon, as well as involve nearby neighbours like Iraq and Syria, and even reach far neighbours such as Yemen and beyond.

Israel and Hezbollah have a conflict that has developed over the past year that appears more risky than the Israel-Hamas one. Since November 2023, Israeli special forces have been plainly operating in small groups in Lebanon. Moreover, Israel has been accused by Hezbollah of conducting unconventional warfare operations and launched hundreds of missile strikes in Lebanon over the past few weeks. On October 1, 2024, Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, escalating tensions in the Middle East. This came after Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, on September 27. This conflict has led to the displacement of about 70,000 people in northern Israel. Iran stated that the missile attacks were retaliation for Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian forces.

After the 1979 Iranian revolution, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped create Hezbollah in Lebanon through funding and military support. Hezbollah’s main goal was to fight against Israel, leading to Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and a major conflict in 2006. Since then, there have been some small fights, however, ongoing events have changed things. The Hamas attack in October 2023 made Israel very tensed about Hezbollah’s strength, especially since they have close military ties with Iran. This attack also compelled people to leave their homes on both sides of the border. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has built up its weapons, now having over 150,000. Israel’s current goal is to mitigate Hezbollah’s military power, focusing on breaking down their forces and taking out their leader.

Israel’s recent strikes on Hezbollah have uplifted concerns in the Gulf region, especially regarding Israel’s increasing use of unconventional military strategies. Although Hezbollah is seen as a threat due to its ties with Iran, Gulf states are worried that Israel’s aggressive actions more destabilize the region. They are primarily concerned about Israel’s growing tendency to use force without much restraint. This has led to fears of escalation, especially in neighboring countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan, which could spill over into the Gulf and create broader instability.

The Middle East is witnessing a chain of escalating conflicts as of October 2024. Israel’s military campaigns against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Iran’s missile attacks on Israel represent the intensification of hostilities. The international community, including the United States, is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to ease tensions. The ongoing presence of non-state actors like Hezbollah, along with state-sponsored actors, makes the security situation more complicated and highlights how fragile stability is in the region.

Iran-Israel-Hezbollah triangle is a critical angle of Middle Eastern security dynamics. The presence of non-state actors like Hezbollah makes the security situation even more complicated, increasing fears that the conflict could expand beyond the region. As Israel and Iran continuously attest to their power, the hold of Arab states is weakening. Simultaneously, Gulf countries are becoming more tensed about Israel’s strategies, showing how vulnerable peace in the region is. If there is not any strong diplomatic effort to sort out these tensions, there is a serious threat that the current escalation could lead to a bigger conflict that affects not only the Middle East but potentially the whole world.