The interim Taliban government in Afghanistan has not been integrated into the international community two years after their takeover of Kabul. Root causes of Afghanistan’s isolation since August 2021 lie in the continuation of Taliban administration’s conservative policies and their failure to honour the Doha Agreement. The aura and mindset of Taliban of the twenty first century seems to be similar to the one they had in the 1990s. Their utter disregard of women’s rights, freedom of beliefs, and other basic principles of liberty are the major reasons for their alienation from the international community. What we learn from the past is that Taliban through the 1990s never really cared about international opinions going against them. They never strived to integrate their economy with the rest of the world, and relied mostly on revenue generation through illicit means, which was mainly used to buy more weapons. Do Taliban of the twenty first century really care about their international integration?

US’s invasion of Afghanistan back in 2001 was for two main reasons. First, Washington wanted to eliminate Al-Qaeda who they thought was behind the 9/11 tragedy. Second, US wanted to uproot the Taliban who they thought gave refuge to Al-Qaeda militants and their leader Osama Bin Laden. The US’s takeover of Kabul few months after the invasion followed by the installation of a democratic Afghan government under President Hamid Karzai led to two decades of unstable governance, mainly relying on support from the US and its allies. Somehow, this model of governance with a democratic outlook did not seem to tally with the ethnic and religious based demographics of Afghanistan. The US invasion that looked like a ‘just war’ in 2001 lost worldwide support and attracted strong critique with many calling it an illegal occupation. The US’s exit and Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021 was widely welcomed by the Muslim world. However, two years of Taliban governance that includes curbs on women’s education and harbouring of militant organizations made the American interference in Afghanistan look just again.

It is unlikely that the Taliban failure to comply with Doha Agreement was not foreseen. The US was too eager to evacuate its forces as their presence in Afghanistan became the major talk of US presidential elections. Moreover, Washington failed to achieve its objectives as Taliban continued to grow in strength and the erstwhile Afghan government was kept confined to Kabul. Various reasons can be attributed to the Taliban resurgence and rise to power. Like in the 1990s, Taliban still do not care much about their international image. They did exchange a few high-level visits with Pakistan and China, but they are nowhere on the path towards international recognition. If the cared about it, they would have first built cordial relations with immediate neighbours, most importantly Pakistan. Taliban’s continued support for TTP and counteraccusations show that they would use militant organizations as means of strategic leverage against its neighbours. Since they are not economically integrated with the world, sanctions and non-recognition will not really help the cause of international community. They are running a whole country like non-state actors run their daily affairs.

Ruling Afghanistan without integrating it into the world system is unsustainable. A country may run on illicit businesses for a few years but it cannot go on forever. The way Afghan people are being suppressed currently may ignite another armed resistance in the war-torn country. By not honouring Doha Agreement, Taliban government may invite another foreign invasion of Afghanistan. At the time of Doha round of talks, the developed world should have realized that what they are expecting Taliban to do is unbecoming of Islamist militant organizations. Confining women to their homes are something in their core ideology. Similarly, Pakistan too was wrong when it expected Afghan Taliban to go hard on TTP and other anti-Pak militant factions. TTA and TTP are two sides of the same coin, and this ideological symmetry is here to stay. With Taliban in charge of Afghanistan, militant organizations and foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) have a place of refuge. The world itself helped to create this safe heaven and provided it with a legal cover through the Doha Agreement.

Another war in Afghanistan would be devastating not only for its people but for the entire region and world at large. The international community needs to explore new ways to make Taliban comply with international norms and practices. Where war is not an option, there has to be a certain carrot and stick strategy. Great powers have the most important role to play. Afghanistan should not be made a ground for international rivalry once again, instead there should be a unified response. The focus must be on curtailing Afghanistan based smuggling and narcotics trade cartels to make the Taliban find new ways of generating revenues. Once avenues of illicit trade are closed, Kabul may then be compelled to integrate its economy in the international system. Once this is done, Taliban would be left with no option then to show compliance with international norms and most importantly the Doha Agreement. China may impose conditions for further investments in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan may also restrict the Afghan transit trade until its demands are met on the western side of Durand Line. The international sanctions regime will prove to be ineffective in the case of Afghanistan as currently it does not rely on international trade to generate income.