Climate Change and Energy affecting our Economic Security.

In Blog
March 29, 2021
Hamna Sajjad
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The road to development has never been an easy one to journey on. It is an inevitable journey on which every country must embark in order to have a brighter, healthier and a greater future, and Pakistan is no exception. But to succeed, Pakistan must secure its greatest asset: its economy but its economy is

The road to development has never been an easy one to journey on. It is an inevitable journey on which every country must embark in order to have a brighter, healthier and a greater future, and Pakistan is no exception. But to succeed, Pakistan must secure its greatest asset: its economy but its economy is under threat, due to the increasing global climate change in which it is inevitably contributing by using coal, natural gas and oil in order to create energy.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has defined economic security as being the ability of individuals and communities to cover their essential needs sustainably and with dignity. However, since the industrial revolution, the need for energy to satisfy meet our essential needs has increased globally. In Pakistan, according to US statistics released in 2019, 64% of energy comes from the consumption of fossil fuels. This inevitably contributes to rising global climate change, despite PM Imran Khan claiming that Pakistan accounts for less than 1% of global carbon emissions. But Pakistan is at risk as the “fifth most vulnerable” country to the effects of climate change.

For the past decade, there has been an energy crisis in the country due to outdated and inefficient power plants and the lack of adequate funds. Yet, in 2018, it was noted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that Pakistan produced 98.83% more energy than it did in 1990, increasing supply by 9, 374 Kilo ton of Oil Equivalent (ktoe). The IEA has also reported that the use of natural gas, oil and coal, which are currently primary resources used to generate energy, has increased with 933,680.0 gross Terajoules (TJ-gross) of natural gas consumed in 2018, mostly by the industrial sector; 17,668.0 of Kilo ton of Oil Equivalent (ktoe) consumed in 2018 mostly by the transport sector; and 7,933.0 ktoe consumed in 2018 mostly by the industrial sector. This means that the levels of Carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted have also increased per population, with 0.9 CO2/capita emitted in 2018.

Although this level of emission is minute compared to China, which has emitted 27.92% of CO2 in 2019, it is nevertheless contributing to the increasing global climate change and the effects are now being witnessed. For example, the reduced levels of rain. The Pakistan Meteorological Department in 2018 reported that rainfall between the 1^st of July and 27^th of August of that year was below the average rainfall levels. The high possibility of rainfall further reducing in the country, as the country has progressed, is a possibility which should not be overlooked. This is problematic especially when we consider food security which is an essential factor for economic security. The agriculture industry is among the major exporting industries in the country, but reduced rainfall has led to less harvest which has affected the income of farming families who have harvesting of rice, sugar, fruit, vegetables, etc. as their only source of income.

Although industries provide us with improved technology that increases our productivity, such as improved tractors. But this is at the expense of our climate. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has highlighted that climate change in Pakistan will also cause increased variability of monsoons and extreme events including floods and droughts. Increased rainfall and floods cause further damage for all the harvest which will have grown will be destroyed, making it harder to meet the demand for agricultural goods in the market. This naturally leads to less access of food in the market and an inflation of food prices in the market.

As a result, poor households in both urban and rural areas will become more vulnerable due to this as more of their income will be spent on meeting their nutrition requirements. But the quality of edibles in the market will also decrease as CO2 reduced the nutritional value of crops and livestock will suffer due to lack of grazing grounds which also naturally increase the cost of meat such as beef and mutton. Furthermore, Pakistan will need to spend more on infrastructure, the implementation of flood prevention plans and providing subsidies to farmers, highlighting the possibility of increased borrowing from foreign countries, which means increased burden of foreign debt.

Nevertheless, the government has established legal frameworks to tackle the issue of climate change. Under the Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017, the Pakistan Climate Change Council has been established, headed by the Prime Minister; has ratified the Kyoto Protocol 1997 and the Paris Agreement 2015; has passed a National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) in 2012 and established a Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy (2014-2030). However, progress towards combating climate change is still sluggish. Furthermore, there are about twenty or so Acts of parliament which exist concerning energy however, despite this, there is still an energy crisis within the country.

Furthermore, China has invested billions of dollars in the CPEC project, installing at least nine-coal based power plants with more under construction. However, last year in December the PM announced that there will be no more power created by on coal and that two coal power projects have been scrapped and replaced it with hydroelectricity. He has further claimed that by 2030, 60% of all energy produced in Pakistan will be clean, obtained through renewable resources and that 30% of all vehicles will run on electricity. Also, it has been estimated that 340 Gigawatts (GW) can be generated by wind power alone.

However, in order for Pakistan to actually progress and walk this road of development, the number one action which must be taken by the government is to implement legal policies and rectified treaties. But in order to do so, “fire power” is needed, says Fahad Saeed, a scientific adviser with Berlin-based Climate Analytics and Malik Amin Aslam, global vice president of IUCN explains that this fire power is the political will of the government and adequate funds. Yet, unfortunately, it is the political will of the government which many citizens are skeptical of and find hard to trust. Furthermore, having adequate funds means Pakistan will need to find a way to generate revenue but unfortunately, the country is relying more on foreign debt and foreign investment. This, ultimately, is causing Pakistan’s economic security to suffer.

In order to move forward, Pakistan must eliminate the restrictions which stand in its way for implementation. The government must adapt to the changing climate and, most importantly, come up with a strict implementation policy which holds accountable those responsible because failure to do so means putting its greatest asset, its economy, at risk.