Changing Global Order: Myth or Reality

Changing Global Order: Myth or Reality

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The contemporary global order is undergoing some critical changes brought-forth by China, however, this change may not completely replace U.S. with China as the leading global power.   China’s incremental challenge to U.S. dominance through economic, diplomatic and financial strategies may seek coexistence rather than outright replacement of the status quo. The contemporary global order is established and shaped by the United States since the end of World War II. The status quo of this world order is faced with many challenges; among these, China’s ascent as a global power has sparked intense debate about whether we are witnessing a genuine transformation in the international system or merely a recalibration within the existing framework. The focus of the debate poses a question: Is China a revisionist power and does it seek to topple the U.S.-led status quo?

China’s footsteps into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region highlights its intent to expand its influence beyond traditional economic parameters. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has established itself as a critical partner for energy-rich states, securing long-term oil and gas supplies essential for its economic growth. The recent China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrates its growing diplomatic clout in a region long dominated by U.S. interests. Unlike the U.S., which often prioritizes military engagement and ideological alignment, China has adopted a pragmatic, non-interventionist approach which focuses on infrastructure investment and economic collaboration. This strategy signals a challenge to the traditional dominance of Western powers in the MENA region, indicating China’s intention to carve out a new sphere of influence.

In South Asia, China’s increasing presence challenges U.S. strategic objectives, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s economic engagements through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its maritime infrastructure investments in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh reflect its efforts to secure trade routes and counterbalance U.S. alliances in the region. Moreover, China’s growing influence in Afghanistan, where it seeks to stabilize the region for its own economic interests, poses another challenge to U.S. objectives. China is attempting to revamp the regional balance of power by positioning itself as an alternative to U.S. hegemony in South Asia, though not without resistance from regional actors like India, a key U.S. ally.

China’s engagement with Europe also reveals an interplay of economic interdependence and strategic divergence. The European Union remains a significant trading partner for China, Beijing’s pursuit of influence through initiatives like the 16+1 format (now 14+1) targeting Central and Eastern European countries has raised alarms for U.S. Moreover, China’s investments in critical infrastructure, such as the Greek port of Piraeus and its extensive trade relations with Germany illustrate its strategy to deepen economic ties while subtly undermining Western unity. However, Europe’s growing concerns over Chinese human rights practices, intellectual property theft and strategic assertiveness, amplified by the U.S, signal that Beijing’s ambitions in the region face notable pushback.

China’s establishment of financial Institutions and currency diplomacy is also a concern for the U.S. Its establishment of financial institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and its urge to internationalize the yuan are pivotal to its efforts to reshape the global financial order. The AIIB, often viewed as an alternative to Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank has funded infrastructure projects across Asia and beyond, consolidating China’s influence in the developing world. Simultaneously, Beijing’s efforts to promote the yuan in international trade and reduce dependency on the U.S. dollar align with its strategy to challenge the dominance of Western financial systems. For instance, China’s trade agreements with Russia, Saudi Arabia and other nations to settle transactions in yuan indicate its long-term goal of creating a multipolar currency system.

Despite China’s growing ambitions, the U.S. has demonstrated significant resistance to any fundamental shifts in the global order. Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, the formation of alliances like AUKUS, QUAD and its robust economic ties with Europe, South East Asia and other regions illustrate a strenuous effort to counterbalance China’s influence. Moreover, U.S. technological initiatives, restrictions on semiconductor exports to China and its efforts to rally allies against Beijing’s coercive practices reflect its resolve to maintain strategic dominance. However, internal challenges such as political polarization and economic inequality, could undermine the U.S.’s ability to sustain its leadership in the long run. Moreover, China’s growing influence does not, in any sense, undermines the importance of U.S strategic and security led alliances and partnerships. Even in the contested Indo-Pacific region, the allies and partners of U.S. look towards China for economic assistance and infrastructure development. If U.S. lends its security hand to its partners and allies, China comes forward to hold other hand for providing economic assistance, development and prosperity. So, one can opines that both U.S. and China are balancing the needs of their partners in the race of enhancing their own diplomatic clout and influence.

Beijing’s approach appears more focused on creating parallel systems and spheres of influence that coexist with the existing order rather than completely dismantling it. The U.S. retains unparalleled military capabilities, a network of global alliances and the dollar’s supremacy, which collectively anchor its leadership. Thus, the notion of a changing global order might be more accurately framed as a diversifying global order where power is more diffused but not wholly restructured.

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