BIDEN’S FOREIGN POLICY, WOULD IT ALLEVIATE PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS?

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November 26, 2020
Mahnoor Islam
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Biden’s Foreign Policy, would it alleviate Pakistan’s National Security concerns? By: Mahnoor Islam Given the tumultuous history between both nations, the relationship between Islamabad and Capitol Hill has always been strained. However, with the new administration taking control over Capitol Hill, it raises the question of what the United States President-Elect, Joe Biden’s foreign policy

Biden’s Foreign Policy, would it alleviate Pakistan’s National Security concerns?

By: Mahnoor Islam

Given the tumultuous history between both nations, the relationship between Islamabad and Capitol Hill has always been strained. However, with the new administration taking control over Capitol Hill, it raises the question of what the United States President-Elect, Joe Biden’s foreign policy looks like for Pakistan. Can Pakistan envisage a propitious future with the US based on mutual geopolitical and economic interests?

Pakistan’s grey-listing by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in 2018 due to its weak anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing structures was heavily advocated by the Obama Administration wherein Joe Biden served a Vice-President. This raises a point of concern for Pakistan that under the Biden Administration what possible position may Pakistan hold at the next FATF plenary session which is to be held in February 2021. The continuing grey-listing or black-listing of Pakistan poses a great threat to the state’s economic and national security. It will halt the economic development of Pakistan which is vital for the sustainable function of the nation, a situation which has already been exasperated by the spread of Covid-19 pandemic.

However, Biden played a critical role in engineering the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act, 2009 which authorised a Civilian Assistance aid worth $1.5 billion to be given to Pakistan from 2010 till 2014 to establish a sustainable relationship with Pakistan. Can Pakistan expect such policies to be established once again? The reinstatement of the civilian assistance aid or a similar package would help alleviate concerns of economic security, particularly in light of the economic slump that has affected Pakistan in recent years.

However, with Pakistan facing various national security concerns, the dispute over Kashmir, and US role in its possible resolution is a vital factor in developing sustainable ties of mutual respect and cooperation between the two nations. US needs to take actionable steps in condemning the humanitarian crisis in Indian Occupied Kashmir, the systematic human rights violations by Indian security forces in the region, and raise concern over the revocation Jammu and Kashmir special status. The policy document of President-elect Joe Biden does include the “restoration of rights of the people of J&K.” Moreover, Vice President-elect, Kamala Harris, also commented on Kashmir and said ‘there is a need to intervene if the situation demands.’

However, Biden may tread carefully in the matter as Biden aims to strengthen US-India relations. During the presidential campaign 2020, it was noted that the Biden Administration would work towards strengthening Indo US relationship by helping India become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. This may pose a dangerous turn of event for Pakistan, as India as a permanent member of the UN Security Council would be able to advance its narrative of Pakistan harboring terrorists, and may employ other lawfare maneuvers to displace Pakistan’s standing in the international community.

Moreover, the new Administration is primarily focused on the Afghan Peace Process and US relations with China. Afghanistan has played a crucial role in Pakistan-US relationships. Biden during his tenure as Vice President under the Obama Administration adopted the ‘Af-Pak’ approach. While recognizing Pakistan as a key player in attaining peace in Afghanistan, the Obama Administration also claimed Pakistan to be assisting in inciting violence in Afghanistan by providing safe haven to terrorists. However, with the US-Taliban Peace Agreement signed early this year and the commencement of the Intra-Afghan Dialogue, the question falls on whether Biden’s Administration will follow through its promises. If Biden backs out of the peace process in Afghanistan, it is likely to incite violence and terrorist activities to surge both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The same may be the case as well in case of a hasty US troop withdrawal from Pakistan which will leave a vacuum in the region for militant groups to take advantage of. Accordingly, how US proceed in Afghanistan is vital to the internal security of Pakistan.

In the context of China, Biden has warned against undertaking ill-advised war trade with China. According to Malik Siraj Akbar, an analyst from Washington, the US takes China as a competitor and not as an enemy. Many experts believe that Biden is going to discontinue the strong criticism that CPEC has been facing by the Trump government. Therefore, Biden’s government may lead to an improvement of the US Pakistan relations as China serves as an ally to Pakistan. However, if Biden follows in the footsteps of Trump, Pakistan might have a difficult time in extracting itself from international financial institutions such as the grey-listing at FATF.

However, Mohan Malik, a visiting fellow at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington believes that Biden could adopt a new policy towards Afghanistan which may negatively impact the Beijing-Islamabad plans of having closer ties with Kabul. Any hindrance between Beijing and Pakistan is also likely to affect CPEC which is crucial towards stabilizing Pakistan’s economy.

In conclusion, with president Trump preparing to leave office, the uncertainty and perhaps discriminatory attitude may also leave with him. However, the implications that Pakistan might have to face depend on the foreign policies adopted by both the countries as well as their security needs.