Addressing the Third Wave

In Blog, Human Security
May 21, 2021
Mahnoor Islam
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Throughout history, pandemics such as The Plague and the 1918 Spanish flu have infected and killed millions of people and have caused extreme economic damage. Not only the developing countries, even developed countries have faced the harsh impacts of pandemics. Currently, the world is trying to combat the covid-19 pandemic. The world currently has more

Throughout history, pandemics such as The Plague and the 1918 Spanish flu have infected and killed millions of people and have caused extreme economic damage. Not only the developing countries, even developed countries have faced the harsh impacts of pandemics. Currently, the world is trying to combat the covid-19 pandemic. The world currently has more than 100 million covid positive cases in the world and the death toll has reached an estimated 3 million. In the subcontinent, the recent surge of cases in India have created panic in not only India, but in its neighbouring country Pakistan aswell.

Pakistan was able to respond quickly due to the nationwide early lockdown, travel bans and the introduction of The National Action Plan for ‘The CoronaVirus Disease (COVID-19) Pakistan’, whose purpose was to create policies and a mechanism to help provincial governments and states across Pakistan to best deal with the pandemic.

On May 9th 2020, Pakistan’s government lifted the nationwide lockdown which was imposed in March 2020. This caused a surge in cases placing Pakistan in the top twelve pandemic affected countries. Almost a year later, Pakistan has witnessed smart lockdowns to control the virus but not a nationwide lockdown. The initial lockdown was lifted due to the burden on the country’s already struggling economy. The lower class and daily wage workers were most affected by the lockdown.

According to a recent report, nearly 20.8 million people suffered livelihood losses due to the shutdown of businesses and mobility restrictions between April and June 2020. Nearly 3.2 million people have also lost their jobs in the country. While Pakistan’s economy is showing some signs of recovery, the subdued growth prospects for FY 2021 means that the economy is unlikely to create enough employment opportunities for the daily wagers or contract/casual labour which forms the vast majority of workers. Furthermore, markets and businesses that were thought to be self-sufficient to deliver on the economy were left gasping. Global trade also dropped to a new low. The World Bank projected shrinkage of 5.2 percent in the world economy, which is the largest since the Second World War. Pakistan is estimated to have an economic loss of up to rupees 2.5 trillion.

When looking at the effects of Covid-19 on the environment, some environmental conditions do seem to have improved however there have been some negative impacts aswell. The positive impacts include reduced GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, improved water quality, reduced noise pollution and overall improvement of air quality. Negative impacts include increased medical waste, haphazard disposal of PPE, increased municipal waste and rescued recycling efforts. Many researchers have concluded that the cause of a global pandemic is due to human activity, advances in medicine have kept epidemics managed and under control however, many have commented that it was only a matter of time until a pandemic of such magnitude was to occur.

While vaccines have been created and administered, Pakistan deals with a very critical problem and that is the myths and resistance that comes with getting vaccines. Pakistan has administered vaccines to its frontline health workers as well as citizens who are 40 plus. Private vaccinations have also been conducted by hospitals. However, to improve the situation, Pakistan needs to combat the resistance against vaccinations otherwise Pakistan may face a similar problem it does with Poliomyelitis. Pakistan is one of three countries to still have the disease and one of the reasons for it is the resistance by its people.

Secondly, what is happening in India is a wake up for Pakistan. Even at Pakistan’s current positivity rate, oxygen availability seems to be a major constraint. Besides this, if there is an influx of patients, doctors will need to make the heartbreaking decision of who lives and who dies- a reality which was seen in Italy and is now being witnessed in India.

The potential third wave should be seen as a national emergency. There needs to be strict implementation of section 144 in all cities as a starting point. The authorities need to make sure SOPs are being followed and there needs to be restriction on movement.

The pandemic doesn’t discriminate against anyone. It is imperative for the government to do something before it is too late. Unfortunately, many in Pakistan are not disciplined enough to follow simple SOPs such as hand washing and wearing masks. Pakistan is a poverty-stricken country, for many it is not an option to stay at home or be unemployed. Such a lifestyle can’t be afforded by most of its citizens. The coming weeks are very critical for Pakistan in terms of Covid response. The government needs to do more against the pandemic otherwise it may witness the same devastating situation in India.