A New Era of US Foreign Policy for Pakistan

In Blog
March 19, 2021
Mehreen Naushad
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In 2008, Biden in a meeting with Hamid Karzai, the then President of Afghanistan claimed that Pakistan was 50 times more important than Afghanistan to the United States regional interest. However, whether the Biden Administration’s foreign policy in the context of Pakistan will be a continuation of that under the Obama and Trump Administration still

In 2008, Biden in a meeting with Hamid Karzai, the then President of Afghanistan claimed that Pakistan was 50 times more important than Afghanistan to the United States regional interest. However, whether the Biden Administration’s foreign policy in the context of Pakistan will be a continuation of that under the Obama and Trump Administration still remains vague.

One dramatic shift that may be observed under the Biden Administration is that a structured, consistent and comprehensive foreign policy is likely to emerge, unlike that under the Trump Administration wherein the policy was more scattered and random. This will generate predictability, and therefore would make it easier for the US to set its priorities when it comes to developing a new foreign policy for the US.

It is perhaps interesting to note, that for the first time since the war on terror started, Pakistan is not a high priority for US foreign policy in the context of its geostrategic importance. The organizing principle of US foreign policy since 2001 has been counter-terrorism. However, a shift in US foreign policy can be seen to focus primarily on great power competition. Great power competition in the context of US refers to what the future of China and US bilateral relations look like in light of the trade war between the two states. With the US focus shifted towards managing its relationship with China, the urgent need to act on climate change, meeting the challenges associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, it shrinking its military footprint in South Asia, and other economic challenges has pushed Pakistan down in list of US policy priorities.

This change in policy is not only synonymous to the US. The same can be seen in the case of Pakistan. Pakistan in the past few years has been successful in eliminating militancy from within its territory. Moreover, a shift can be seen in Pakistan’s strategic calculus. The foreign policy of Pakistan no longer solely focuses on military security, but is now also inclusive of other national security issues such as economic security, health security, etc. Pakistan aims to develop itself as geo-economic state rather than a nation that is simply through the prism of its geo-strategic importance.

Although both states have differing foreign policy priorities, it does not take away from the fact that Pakistan will continue to be an important ally of the US. The key factors in the future of US-Pakistan relationship will be Afghanistan, action against terror groups and the Pakistan-China relationship. This stands particularly true in light of the Afghan Peace Process. Pakistan has played an important facilitative role towards ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan. The same move has been greatly appreciated by the US. Moreover, the Biden Administration’s policy with respect to counter-terrorism has shifted to a counter-plus approach. The counter-terrorism plus approach emphasizes fighting terrorist networks in foreign countries using small groups of U.S. special forces and aggressive air strikes instead of large troop deployments.

With respect to the Afghan Peace Process, the Biden Administration has already said that they will be reviewing the Afghan Peace Agreement on the grounds that the Taliban has violated the Agreement. According to the US Secretary of the State, the US wants to retain some military capacity in Afghanistan since Taliban has failed to uphold its end of the deal and in case of resurgence of terrorism. The Taliban has failed to ensure reduction in the violence, progress in the negotiations with the Afghan Government, and stopping support to transnational networks.

Pakistan has advised the US Government to abide by the Agreement. Moreover, in light of the comments by senior functionaries in the Biden Administration, it is clear that while Washington prefers to keep Pakistan onside, the Biden Administration may not be in a hurry to reduce the US military presence in Afghanistan. Similarly, the US Government has spoken about reinstating some military-to-military programmes with Pakistan, but it has largely remained silent about developing a broader, economy-based relationship with Pakistan.

Another factor is the China Pakistan relationship. The Biden Administration views the relationship between China and Pakistan from the same lens as the Trump Administration. The current US Administration has been very vocal about criticizing China’s economic model, its hegemonic tendencies, and how the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is reflective of China’s ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’. Furthermore, the Biden Administration has also focused on developing ties with Australia, India and Japan to gain foothold in the Indo-Pacific region. This poses great challenges for Pakistan, that has been heavily reliant on China’s support in keeping its floundering economy afloat, and its armed forces technologically competitive. However, the Biden Administration will recognise the economic importance China has for Pakistan.

In conclusion, the US-Pakistan bilateral relationship will be driven by various factors in coming days. However, it is clear that the Biden Administration will need to cooperate with the Pakistan military for its strategic interests in Afghanistan, and in order to appease the civilian establishment, the US may propose granting economic assistance to Pakistan. The two obstacles in strengthening ties with Washington D.C. is Pakistan’s growing relationship with China, and the zero-sum approach Pakistan takes when dealing with national security concerns.